“Israeli right-wing proponents are digging a hole for themselves, turning Israel into a modern-day ‘Sisyphus,’ perpetually rolling the heavy boulder of occupation of Palestine and constantly consuming itself from within”
Zhejiang University Professor Ma Xiaolin forewarns Israel about the "Gazafication" of the West Bank.
Ma believes that the current trend of Middle East reconciliation does not fundamentally change the general trend of marginalization of the Palestinian issue, nor does it change Iran's hostile relationship with Israel. It is even less likely to facilitate Palestinian and Israeli concessions.
Context: From July 3-5, 2023, The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) launched a major incursion on the Jenin refugee camp in the West Bank city of Jenin. Codenamed "Home and Garden," the operation included air and ground forces and targeted terrorist infrastructure of Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants and other terrorist organizations.
[For a deeper dive into the operation and its implications for Israel by my senior INSS colleagues, Brig. Gen. (res.) Udi Dekel and Dr. Anat Kurz, click here.]
Professor Ma is the director of the Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean Rim (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University (ZISU) in Hangzhou. Before joining ZISU, Ma spent three decades as a Xinhua News Agency correspondent and news editor covering the Middle East, including three years in Gaza.
Excerpts from Ma’s article, published on July 25th, 2023 in Xinhua News Agency's Globe 环球 magazine:
“The Palestinian National Authority's (PA) legitimacy will be challenged if it fails to repair the economy and achieve a just and lasting peace. Meanwhile, the nationalist banner and proximity to the grassroots have helped Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) gain support.
“Israel's long-standing hardline policy toward the PA has eroded the PA's legitimacy and hampered the viability of its internal forces. At the same time, it has allowed radical factions such as Hamas and the PIJ to grow and expand their power.
“Consequently, instead of facing only the "Gaza threat," Israel now faces a "double threat" from both Gaza and the West Bank. In the end, Israeli right-wing proponents are digging a hole for themselves, turning Israel into a modern-day "Sisyphus," perpetually rolling the heavy boulder of occupation of Palestine and constantly consuming itself from within.
“As a result of the Jenin conflict, Israel may find itself in an even worse and more unmanageable security nightmare.
Despite normalizing relations with a number of its distant adversaries, namely Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, and Morocco, its enemies next door remain. Not only have they not been weakened or destroyed, but they are now encircling Israel more tightly:
“To the north, Lebanon's Hezbollah has long been a major strategic rival and mortal enemy. To the north-east, Syria's prolonged civil war has resulted in the unprecedented presence of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah forces. They have been working hard to consolidate their positions and maintain a long-term presence, which has resulted in sporadic Israeli air strikes deep inside Syria.
“Under the banner of "liberating Islamic lands," Hamas and PIJ have joined forces, and even the secularized Fatah has been infiltrated by outside forces. Today, the situation in Jenin and Nablus is clearly out of control, indicating that Middle Eastern powers' political and military influence has spread beyond the Gaza Strip and taken root in the West Bank.
“In the end, Israel's rigid stance and "zero-sum" mentality have effectively stifled and suppressed the main Palestinian forces for peace, spinning itself into an increasingly tangled, sticky web 为自己编织起日益缠身麻团.
“A Peaceful Conclusion is Still a Long Way Off
“[Palestinian President] Mahmoud Abbas concluded his fifth state visit to China in mid-June. During this visit, China proposed a three-point solution to the Palestinian issue and expressed its willingness to play an active role in assisting the Palestinians in achieving internal reconciliation and promoting peace talks. This allows the international community to focus more attention on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and promote the regional peace process.
“Objectively speaking, the current trend of Middle East reconciliation is primarily a cessation of identity politics and factional entanglements between the Saudis and the Iranians. It does not change the general trend of marginalization of the Palestinian issue, nor does it fundamentally change Iran's hostile relationship with Israel, let alone facilitate mutual concessions between Palestinians and Israelis on the core issues of the dispute.
“On July 10, the Israeli Ministry of National Security expanded the distribution of weapons to citizens to defend against possible Palestinian attacks, bringing the total number of legally armed Israelis to 200,000, increasing the risk of Israelis, particularly radical settlers, shooting at Palestinians [The real concern is that Palestinian terrorists, a term Ma uses only in “scare quotes,” will steal these weapons and use them against Israeli civilians. Since January, 18 Jews have been murdered this way].
“On the same day, the Al-Ayyash Brigade launched Qassam-1 rockets from Jenin into nearby Jewish settlements. The battle of Jenin is thus only a new starting point in the Palestinians' and Israelis' strategic dilemma, and the end of peace between the Palestinians and Israelis is still a long way off.”（Globe）
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