Middle East professor Li Weijian is the executive director of the Chinese Association for Middle East Studies (CAMES) and a senior fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS).
Excerpts from Li Weijian’s interview with Hong Kong China News Agency 香港中通社, published on June 26th, 2023:
According to Li Weijian, Abbas's visit to China is significant in two ways. For starters, it will encourage the further development of bilateral relations between China and Palestine, including economic assistance, while also addressing Palestine's current practical difficulties.
Second, Abbas traveled to China with the expectation that "China would play a constructive role in the Israeli-Palestinian issue," says Li, adding that China will demonstrate its willingness to continue to provide Chinese wisdom and Chinese solutions to the peace process while also listening to Palestinian ideas.
Will Abbas' invitation result in a new platform for Israel-Palestine peace talks? Li emphasized that the two sides have yet to form a mechanism, and the conditions for resuming negotiations in the short term are not ripe, so it is premature to predict the formation of a new platform.
In contrast, China has been contributing to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process for many years, such as with [Xi Jinping's] four-point proposals [in 2013 & 2017], and the Chinese side may continue to maintain diplomatic contacts with the Israeli side.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has always been the key 关键点 to Middle Eastern peace. Palestinian-Israeli peace talks have stalled since 2014, and more conflicts have erupted in recent years, with relations between the two countries at an all-time low.
However, the Middle East's current geopolitical landscape has shifted, and there is a "wave of reconciliation" in the region [since China brokered normalization between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March]. If Israel continues to refuse to negotiate, it will find itself increasingly isolated in the Middle East.
Will the Palestinian president's visit to China provide an important opportunity to discuss the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? According to Li Weijian, the Middle East is experiencing a wave of reconciliation, and countries are focusing on their own development.
Moreover, in the past, the US hyped the Iranian issue, focusing the international community's attention on Iran. Now that diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been restored, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has returned to the international stage, putting pressure on Israel.
In comparison to the tense situation in the Middle East in the past, when the region was caught up in geopolitical games, the improvement of the regional political environment will undoubtedly be more conducive to the resumption of negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis.
But unlike Saudi Arabia and Iran, Israel and Palestine face different challenges, and even if talks are held, Israel's extreme right-wing government may prevent it from making concessions.
During his recent visit to Saudi Arabia, Secretary of State Blinken also reaffirmed US support for ending to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict based on a two-state solution. But at the same time, he also recognized that the prospect of such an outcome "may be very distant". Earlier this year, Blinken went on a "cooling the fever tour" 降火之旅 has not had a substantial impact.
Li Weijian believes that the US has been acting in its own self-interest in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, siding with Israel and helping it in kicking the Palestinians around 拉偏架. The US has made a number of [peace] proposals, but they all involve asking the Palestinians to make concessions [Both sides are asked to make difficult concessions.]
China, on the other hand, is more impartial; China's policy is to ensure Israel's security while also considering Palestine's interests [China has done nothing but demonstrate that Israel's security is the least of its concerns. Beijing never misses a chance to vote against Israel or to single it out on the international stage, and has failed to denounce Palestinian (and Iranian) terrorism against it, to say nothing of Chinese state-owned banks assisting Hamas, PIJ, and IRGC in laundering their money].
Will the US strategic interests in the Middle East region be served if Palestine and Israel take the path of reconciliation? If not, will the US take action to thwart the peace negotiations?
According to Li Weijian, numerous US presidents have attempted to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but only succeeded in escalating the conflict. As a result, many Middle Eastern nations have little faith in the US. Although China has no desire to take over the US role in the Middle East, Americans have voiced concerns about China's rapid rise and influence. Washington won’t easily relinquish its dominance in the Middle East, nor will it watch from the sidelines on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
How much longer do we have to wait for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to be resolved? “The first priority,” according to Li Weijian, “should be to stop the marginalization of the Palestinian issue and, one step at a time, improve the immediate environment. The two sides could also agree to a peace treaty and then gradually enter into negotiations; however, I anticipate that this will also be a protracted process.”
(HKCNA)