#35 Geoeconomics and Geopolitics

widening MENA war : Part II

Nov 03, 2023

Alastair Crooke has posted a rather bleak outlook when the multiple escalations cannot be stopped, but fused into one combustive cauldron.
For once, the reality of the necessity of war is permeating widely the consciousness of the Arabic and Islamic world.

Thus, it is no coincidence that while Netanyahu flourished a map of Israel during his General Assembly address last month in which Israel dominated from the River to the Sea – and Palestine (indeed, any Palestinian territory) was non-existent. Not neglecting that Netanyahu is trying best to save his skin even in front of UN Assembly - with that outlandish pipe-dream scheme. For once, USA wants everyone to buy oil from her continental (the nord stream madcap is a consequential sideplay). Secondly, the Leviathan fields are vulnerable from Hezbollah rockets in Lebanon. Thirdly, a mission of this nature entails China participation as latter has the port facilities in Haifa - besides the sea linkages to Sri Lanka as another strategic pearl and Pakistan’s CPEC.

The I2U2 (Israel India United Emirate US model) first summit was held on July 24, 2022 with Narendra Modi, President of the UAE Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, US President Joseph R Biden and, then Prime Minister of Israel Yair Lapid to conceptualise and jointly promote investments in six mutually identified areas of water, energy, transportation, space, health, and food security. Historically, this minilateral I2U2 was born as an upshot to the Abraham Accords. Though, definitively rearing behind is USA trying to conceptualise I2U2 as part of the QUAD-type alliance to be later expanded to the Meirsheirmer mesmerising idea of AUKUS so that the grand strategic chessboard becomes part of US Indo-Pacific Strategy evolving into Blinken's blinkered Indo-Asia-Pacific Strategy. We have a president and a premier endeavouring to save their backs, (see links on US faces defeat in geopolitical war in Gaza and Aaron Matè's Joe Biden Armageddon; and political end of Netanyahu in The Atlantic, 22/10/23).

Tom Friedman in his NYT reflections feared that just as NATO’s impaired performance in Ukraine has ruptured ‘the NATO myth’, so too the 7 October Israeli military and intelligence collapse, and whatever happens in its wake in Gaza ‘might explode the entire pro-American alliance structure’ in the Middle East.

Thus, it comes about whence rhe confluence of two such humiliations might break the spine of western primacy.

On one prime notice is that Hamas has succeeded in smashing the Israel deterrence paradigm - HAMAS was not afraid, the IDF proved far from invincible, and secondly, what is euphemistically known as the Arab street - the people has mobilised as never before (confounding western cynics who belittle there being an ‘Arab Street’).

This is, then, where we are – and the White House is rattled. They are deeply unconfident that an Israeli invasion of Gaza will put ‘Humpty’ together again, (straegic-culture). Rather, they fear that events may go badly for the IDF, and further, that the images relayed across the Middle East of Israel using overwhelming force in a civilian urban setting will revolt the Islamic sphere, and everyone else (Caitlin Johnstone, where the lights go out in Gaza).

Inspite of western doubts, there are signs that this insurrection is different, and resembles more of the 1916 Arab Revolt that overthrew the Ottoman Empire. It is taking on a distinct ‘edge’ as both Shi’a and Sunni religious authorities state the duty of Muslims to stand with Palestinians. In other words, as the Israeli polity becomes plainly ‘Prophetical’, so the Islamic mood is turning eschatological (ibid).

This comes about as part of an Israeli plan (from the Israeli culture magazine Mekovit published on 28 October a leaked document) to forcefully transfer the population of the Gaza Strip to Sinai permanently, and calls for the international community to be leveraged to assist the move (thecradle; see also palestinian genocide by thegrayzone); and mondoweiss on ethnic-cleansing of Gaza); a plan that was supported by POTUS initially, but later withdrawn, (MoA).

To prompt Egypt to accept escaping Palestinians, Israel is proposing writing off a significant chunk of Egypt’s international debts through the World Bank to entice the cash-strapped Abdel Fattah el-Sisi regime to open its doors for displaced Palestinians, according to the Israeli Ynet website. Egypt is currently mired in a national debt crisis, ranking second only to Ukraine among countries most likely to default in debt payments. The country is haemorrhaging half of its revenue in interest payments and is reliant on loans from the IMF and wealthy Gulf states, limiting its ability to contradict US foreign policy, (middleeasteye.net).

However, Israel is a colonial settler state in permanent conflict with the suppressed natives. This colonial state extends its settlements, by deterring opposing forces with its militarised superiority. It is deployment of overwhelming force to frighten Palestinians into submission, (Prof. Yakov M. Rabkin). However, Hamas in October 7 has breached that deterrence myth. Now that Netanyahu is under pressure to restore the deterrence - to provide the Zionists again with a feeling of superiority.

This is failing.

Netanyahoo's Strategic Dilemma - (Moon of Alabama - Oct 21, 2023) that another factor is of course Hezbollah and other resistance groups, which may well attack Israel from the north and various other directions. Hezbollah has some 100,000 missiles - more than enough to exhaust Israel's air defenses. Its longest reach missiles can attack any major city within Israel. There have already been daily fire exchanges at the northern border. The 2006 war in Lebanon has shown that Hezbollah was well dug-in and capable to defend itself. It has since gained more experience by fighting ISIS in Syria. Neither U.S. air force attacks nor a land force invasion can hinder Hezbollah from firing its missiles.

Even former Defense Minister and Prime Minister, Ehud Barak, had indicated how the Israeli army could dismantle Hamas’s operations, proviso “The overall contours are that Hamas probably has another 10,000 rockets and probably 200 miles of tunnels under Gaza, and they have probably 25,000 to 30,000 fighters between Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. We should bring probably 50,000 or more troops in order to make sure that we win,” (Foreign Policy 2/11/2023).

Then there is the Iran-Israel war equation.

A deputy director of the Institute for National Security Studies and a former Israeli ambassador to Washington (Haaretz, 26/10/23) has this to say: since the October 7 Gaza conflict, situational events are assuming a broader context, primarily shaped by Iran’s effort to challenge Israel on multiple fronts. There is a war of attrition going on between Tehran’s proxy – Hezbollah – and Israel, and at any given moment, Iran and Hezbollah’s leadership could decide to escalate it into a full-scale war, (see tripartite statement in #34 Geoeconomic and China's position on the Gaza conflict; and critique on a "hegemon hatred").

Another Iranian proxy, is the Houthis in Yemen and other Shi’ite militias are in active armed preparation at the northern Golan Heights.

Completing the above assessment is that Iran’s Foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian visited Doha and Ankara on Wednesday. While in Doha, he met with the head of the Hamas politburo, Ismail Haniyeh, for the second time last month. Later, while addressing a joint press conference with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan in Ankara, Amir-Abdollahian warned that “If the genocide and war crimes against civilians are not stopped, the region is very close to making a big and decisive decision… (and) the consequences will be severe, and the warmongers will definitely not be able to bear the consequences.”

Shrinking Options

Therefore, the window of opportunity in Washington is narrowing because the United States will be in the midst of a presidential election campaign by 2024. Whoever thinks that it’s possible to build a regional array of countries with American backing and at the same time to work toward Israeli annexation of the West Bank is delusional.

To put it another way, US diplomacy has had lost its traction in the Middle East; targeting Iran nor isolating Iran is not possible now, (Bhadrakumar 27/10/2023).

Meirsheirmer deliverance in Sydney - more than emphasised the US loss of its foreign affairs' realism powerhold in pivoting to China through encirclement (Amanda Yee); by fighting two wars had only diminished its global hegemonic stranglehold; read empire building in hegemonic hubris.

Indeed, Russia is in no hurry to exploit the Biden administration’s quandary over the collapse of US Middle East security. After all, Russia is awaiting in the wings to seize the opportunity once the US took its eye off the ball in Ukraine, (Bhadrakumar, October).

Presently, US is at an inflection point without an ability to influence situational events, and the international affairs capacity only lies by resurrecting 87-year old man Abbas as the interim but transitional leader (because CIA and Mossad have longstanding contacts within Fatah). And, even the US's two-state solution is sandblasted in the desert oasis because:

First, the entire project is anchored on an absolute military victory over Hamas (reminding everyone of "mission accomplished" in Iraq and an "easy foray" into Afghanistan).

Secondly, Palestinians detest the US and Israel and will not submit to quislings handpicked by these countries. Both Fatah and Abbas are thoroughly discredited entities.

Third, Hamas’ grassroots support cannot be just lightly wished away because resistance movements will not demise when conditions of foreign hegemony exist.

Finally, Washington would still need UN Security Council mandate to legitimise whatever plot it is hatching, which is difficult to extract on American terms if Putin’s speech on Monday is anything to go by when in a speech at a meeting on Monday with harsh language to describe the carnage unleashed in Gaza, as former Indian diplomat Bhadrakumar on November summarised the contorting situations succinctly.

The gigantic geopoltical game is that the Ukrainian General Zaluzny, with 3 pieces in The Economist regarding stalemate in the Ukrainian landscape where the breakthrough he needs to beat the Russians are not there. More uncomfortable is the factual reality that Zelensky’s Struggle to Keep Ukraine in the Fight (Time - Oct. 30, 2023) is becoming a delusional illusion for POTUS, NATO and the EU.

In Gaza, indeed, the Israeli encirclement of Hamas could take months or even a year to complete, (Economist, 28/10/2023); Israeli ground invasion debunked (almayadeen); war wouldn't end (csis); however war in Gaza ends, Israel has already lost (thehill)

EPILOGUE

Who runs Gaza after invasion? (Chicago Global Affairs), and the fate of the Palestinian people will affect Israel’s future security (Chicago Tribune); And, what plan for the day after the invasion ends? asks Yonatan Touval - senior policy analyst with Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies. Thus, a plan for peace in Gaza (foreign affairs, 27/10/23) where PLO is to lead and the Palestinian Authority to govern?