PREAMBLE
Upon a harder outlook, and harsher assessment on US- China relations than the last week's article by Wu Xinbo (吴心伯), one needs to look at Shen Yi's articulation on
The number of red lines China has drawn for the United States is increasing, and Taiwan is just the first one
The Chinese text is HERE to those seeking to read the original article as written.
The English text as reproduced herein, albeit missing the literary nuances, is generated by a machine-translated process from the archive of Weibo 2024-04-27
Author is Shen Yi Professor of the Department of International Politics, Fudan University, China.
[Text/Shen Yi]
From April 24 to 26, 2024, US Secretary of State Blinken visited China. This visit is a practical step for China and the United States to implement the "San Francisco Consensus" jointly reached by the two heads of state, maintain dialogue, manage differences, promote cooperation, and strengthen coordination on international affairs.
2024 marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States. In response to the severe challenges that China-US relations have faced since the Trump administration, China, based on its high sense of responsibility for a community with a shared future for mankind, has made efforts to stabilize Sino-US relations and in a responsible manner, promoting the implementation of the consensus reached at the San Francisco Heads of State Summit has demonstrated to the world China's willingness, ability and art to responsibly manage differences between China and the United States, avoid conflicts, promote cooperation, and pragmatically promote the sound development of Sino-US relations:
1. Sino-US relations test China’s diplomatic capabilities. Sino-US relations are in a period of change and development. 2024 marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States. The balance of power between China and the United States has undergone huge and significant changes. In the face of new changes in power, China needs to overcome various difficulties, handle Sino-US relations responsibly, and advance Sino-US relations in a way that best suits China's national interests.
This poses a major test to China’s diplomatic capabilities. To put it simply, China not only needs to find a new model for Sino-US relations and explore a new set of guiding principles, but also needs to use various methods to make the United States accept the Recognize and push the United States to meet China halfway as soon as possible. At the same time, China also needs to clarify its own red lines and bottom lines, control the behavior of the United States, and protect China's own core and fundamental interests in an effective way. At the same time, China also needs to show its support, maintenance and defense to the people of the world, including the Chinese people, for China’s interests and global interests, as well as values and concepts of common concern to mankind.
In short, managing, maintaining, and promoting Sino-US relations have become the core test of China's current diplomatic capabilities. Blinken's visit to China constitutes a typical scene, which has attracted widespread attention from all parties.
2. China has demonstrated superb diplomatic capabilities and diplomatic art. For Blinken, this visit can be described as a "self-knowledge of warmth and coldness": On the occasion of the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, when he landed in Shanghai, the reception from China was neither humble nor overbearing, just as it was: continuous smearing, slander, and accusations against China. Blinken, who has always been accustomed to making chips in the void, has been given sufficient free time in Shanghai. Of course, this kind of treatment has been evaluated by sharp foreign netizens as "the treatment is not as good as that of a newborn panda baby." Chinese netizens believe that "this foreign netizen obviously doesn’t know how favored the baby panda is. How could Blinken be so good and what contribution he has made to Sino-U.S. relations that he dares to expect the same treatment as the baby panda?”
Judging from China's arrangements, there was no red carpet, no banquet, and Blinken was allowed to watch by himself in Shanghai. This treatment clearly conveyed that the United States should calm down and see and think for itself; of course, the United States was not idle either. I chose a safe school to visit, ensuring that Blinken would not be embarrassed by being asked, and then I chose a school that was in line with Western kitsch (actually, Blinken and his team were idiots, and thought they understood China) A short video was made locally (even though it was just announced that TikTok would be killed), but the tragic result was that the background was "Happy Birthday to the People's Navy" and "The People's Navy will always be loyal to the Party". I was so scared that I directly pulled frames from the finished product, and also took advantage of The Bund.
Few viewers of the video paid attention to Blinken’s pretentiousness, and focused entirely on the scenery of Shanghai and China’s development.
On April 24, Blinken and his party watched the Shanghai Jiushi Men’s Basketball Team’s home game against the Zhejiang Chouzhou Financial Rental Team in the second round of the CBA playoffs.
At the same time, China briefed the event in advance, listed five core concerns, arranged various activities during the event, and gave strategic guidance on Sino-US relations through courtesy meetings with leaders after the talks, and briefed afterwards to fully demonstrate the Chinese system. He advocated not only grasping the rhythm and establishing a relaxed tone, but also fully grasping the Blinken team, which only focuses on the minutiae of domestic elections. Judging from the current reactions, considering that Blinken has begun to say that China interferes in domestic elections in the United States; it’s ridiculous.
Obviously, the whole process has been manipulated by the Chinese side, and they can’t find an effective counterattack strategy. They can only use this kind of fictitious catharsis to express ineffective and low-quality expressions.
3. Courtesy meetings with Chinese leaders to explain their authoritative stance on Sino-US relations, provide guidance, and seize the strategic initiative. Starting from the perspective of building a correct strategic understanding and "buttoning the first button" for the development of Sino-US relations, China has proposed "four shoulds", that is, China and the United States should be partners, not opponents; they should achieve each other's achievements. , instead of hurting each other; we should seek common ground while reserving differences, instead of vicious competition; we should be true to our words and resolute in our actions, instead of saying one thing and doing another. This is a concrete manifestation of the three guiding principles of Sino-US relations in the new era, namely mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation. It is a summary of the experience of Sino-US relations in the past 45 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations, and it also guides the future development of Sino-US relations.
Chinese leaders introduced China's basic starting point for viewing the world and Sino-US relations in view of the century-old changes that the world is currently facing and the intertwined international situation. That is, both sides should build the greatest consensus to achieve win-win and multi-win situations. Chinese leaders clearly stated that "a major country must behave like a major country, have the mind and responsibility of a major country, and should take responsibility for world peace, create opportunities for the development of all countries, provide public goods to the world, and play a positive role in world unity." These four "dos" are the examples that China and the United States should set.
Regarding the recent development of Sino-U.S. relations, Chinese leaders frankly pointed out that since the heads of state summit reached the "San Francisco Vision", the two sides have indeed made some positive progress, but there are still many problems that need to be solved. China is committed to stabilizing Sino-U.S. relations in 2024. The basic consideration of relationships is to value harmony, stability and trust. Frankly speaking, China is willing to cooperate, but cooperation should be two-way. We are not afraid of competition, but competition should be about common progress, not a zero-sum game. China insists on non-alignment, and the United States should not engage in "small circles". Both parties can have their own friends and partners, and do not target each other, do not oppose each other, and do not harm each other.
The views on cooperation, competition and the respective diplomatic relations between China and the United States were expressed candidly and in-depth to the United States through the leaders' courtesy meetings, which fully demonstrated China's strategic considerations and provided the latest information for China to handle and develop Sino-US relations. The guidance also provides a comprehensive explanation and explanation for the United States to correctly understand and grasp China's overall considerations on Sino-US relations.
4. Senior Chinese diplomats once again demonstrated their continuous on-site teaching capabilities for 5 and a half hours and 330 minutes. The 330 minutes cover strategic cognition, Taiwan, economy, trade, science and technology, the South China Sea, the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy" and other major timeissues involving China's core concerns to state its position.
Next, it’s to type on the blackboard, and all the tests are required:
First, identity construction, strategic cognition and “consistency”.
China has become increasingly mature, clear, and confident in its discussion of identity construction. China can now discuss with the United States calmly whether the two sides should be partners or adversaries, pointing out that this is the fundamental issue in Sino-U.S. relations.
China said that China's attitude, stance, and requirements on Sino-US relations are consistent, which shows the continuity, coherence and consistency of China's strategic understanding and policy towards the United States. At the same time, China also frankly told the United States that if the United States always regards China as its main opponent, Sino-US relations will only be troubled and full of problems.
In other words, the future direction of Sino-US relations depends on whether the United States is willing to meet China halfway on issues of strategic cognition. If the United States recognizes China's positive stance, takes practical actions, and meets each other halfway, then Sino-US relations can completely stabilize and re-enter a new stage of sound development. If the United States ignores China's goodwill and sincerity, and ignores China's reasonable interest concerns , if China continues to adopt inappropriate policies on the red lines and bottom lines clearly pointed out by China, the United States should bear full responsibility for the negative impact it will have on Sino-US relations and the world.
Second, draw red lines. The first is the Taiwan issue.
What should be noted here is that the number of red lines China has drawn for the United States is increasing, and Taiwan is only the first. During the talks, Foreign Minister Wang Yi clearly informed Secretary of State Blinken that the Taiwan issue is the first insurmountable red line in Sino-US relations. China’s elaboration on this issue is more frank and comprehensive:
China first frankly told the United States that there is a premise for China and the United States to discuss the Taiwan issue. This premise is that Taiwan is China's Taiwan, so the Taiwan issue is purely China's internal affairs. The Taiwan issue has become an issue because the United States is interfering in China's internal affairs. Based on this premise, China firmly opposes a series of wrong words and deeds by the United States on the Taiwan issue. China emphasized during the dialogue that if the United States really hopes for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, it should abide by the one-China principle and the three Sino-US joint communiqués to the letter, and must not send wrong signals to "Taiwan independence" separatist forces in any way, and stop arming Taiwan. , supports China’s peaceful reunification.
Regarding the formulation of the Taiwan issue, on the one hand, China adheres to its long-standing position, on the other hand, it fully considers the characteristics of the Taiwan issue in the current time and space, and puts forward more specific and clear requirements on how the United States can abide by the one-China principle. Clear guidelines are given for handling the Taiwan issue in Sino-U.S. relations. If the United States cares about the security and stability of the Taiwan Strait, as it claims, it should follow the guidelines given by China, correct wrong policies and behaviors, and avoid Crossing the red line on the Taiwan issue.
Third, economic and trade issues eventually evolved into China’s development rights and became a new red line.
Since the Trump administration, economic, trade and science and technology issues have become an important issue in Sino-US relations. Taking into account the developments since the current U.S. administration took office, China has clearly pointed out that the core of economic, trade, science and technology issues is the Chinese people’s right to development, and this right is inalienable.
Economic and trade issues evolved into economic and trade science and technology issues, and eventually evolved into the development rights of the Chinese people and were upgraded to China's new red line. Therefore, during the talks, China was very candid (listing all the bad things and stupid things done by the United States, and then asking the United States to change them): The United States has repeatedly suppressed China's economy, trade, and science and technology. This is not what the U.S. calls fair competition, but a containment and containment of China in the name of competition. It is not the de-risking that the U.S. claims verbally, but it is creating risks for Sino-U.S. relations. China clearly demands that the United States stop hyping up the false narrative of the so-called "China's overcapacity theory," lift illegal sanctions on Chinese companies, and stop imposing Section 301 tariffs that violate WTO rules.
The United States focuses on hyping up overcapacity, and China focuses on responding to overcapacity. This narrative has been clearly characterized as a "false narrative". In the history of Sino-US relations, this kind of characterization is rare. Combined with the US’s false narrative of “China’s overcapacity theory”, illegal sanctions on Chinese companies, and the imposition of Section 301 tariffs that violate WTO rules, China made in-depth discussions during the talks and cited a large amount of data to prove that China’s development in new energy : advantages in automobiles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic products and other fields are not the product of Chinese government subsidies, but the result of global market demand, technological innovation and full competition. Judging from the actual results, China's high-quality new energy products have made important contributions to countries accelerating green transformation, coping with climate change, and alleviating inflationary pressure.
The so-called "overcapacity" by the United States is not a conclusion based on market definition, but a man-made false narrative. It is another example of the United States engaging in protectionism and suppressing China's development. China frankly said that the so-called false narrative of "China's overcapacity" is essentially the United States' excessive strategic anxiety about China based on misunderstandings.
At the same time, China frankly pointed out to the United States that the Chip and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act introduced by the United States in the past two years violated the basic rules of the game, openly implemented exclusionary and discriminatory policies, and openly implemented subsidies that violated the rules of the game.
Disruption of normal economic and trade order.
The United States also illegally sanctioned more than 1,500 Chinese entities and individuals under various pretexts, imposing unfair competition on China, which is completely inconsistent with the fair competition claimed by the United States. The United States should comprehensively correct this to bring China-US relations back to health. development on a positive track.
Blinken’s visit to China, knowing whether he is warm or not.
Fourth, respond to the necessary questions raised by the US one by one. Regarding the security and stability of the Asia-Pacific region, as well as the South China Sea issue, China has clearly stated that the Asia-Pacific region should not become a battleground for major powers. We hope that the United States will make the right decision, work with China halfway, achieve positive interactions in the Asia-Pacific, and give up creating small circles that exclude each other. Coercing regional countries to choose sides. In light of the recent specific actions taken by the United States that have jeopardized regional mutual trust and undermined security and stability, China clearly stated that the United States should stop deploying land-based intermediate missiles in the Asia-Pacific region, stop undermining China's strategic security interests, and stop undermining the hard-won peace and stability in the region.
Regarding the South China Sea issue, China clearly stated its position to the United States during the talks: China has sovereignty over the Nansha Islands, including Ren'ai Reef, and has sufficient historical and legal basis. China has always abided by international law, including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and no country can attempt to challenge China's legitimate rights and interests with illegal rulings.
The reasons for the current situation at Ren'ai Reef are crystal clear. The Philippines first broke its promise and refused to tow away the illegally beached warships. For 25 years later, it repeatedly violated the "gentleman's agreement" and internal understanding it reached with China, and committed wanton infringement. Provocation and attempt to conduct large-scale repairs and reinforcements in order to achieve permanent occupation of Second Thomas Shoal. The Philippines' actions seriously violate the provisions of Article 5 of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea reached by China and ASEAN countries.
China also frankly pointed out to the United States that the recent escalation of tensions in the South China Sea is inseparable from the United States' intervention. The United States frequently threatens the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, seriously violates the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter, and seriously jeopardizes regional peace and stability. If the United States wants to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea, it should stop fanning the flames and provoking confrontation. China is unswervingly determined to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Regarding the so-called Hong Kong-related, Xinjiang-related, Tibet-related and human rights issues, China fully responded to the U.S.’s false accusations and slanders during the talks. China clearly informed the U.S. that Hong Kong is China’s Hong Kong and that the U.S. should respect China’s sovereignty and the rule of law in Hong Kong. Smear and slander. Issues related to Xinjiang and Tibet are China's internal affairs. The United States should not point fingers, let alone interfere indiscriminately under the pretext of human rights.
Regarding the US's smear campaign and pressure on China on the Ukraine issue on the eve of Blinken's visit, China also gave a clear response during the talks. Foreign Minister Wang Yi frankly stated to Secretary of State Blinken that China was not the creator of the Ukraine crisis, nor was it a party to it, and it had not done anything to add fuel to the fire or take advantage of the situation.
China's position can be summed up in eight words: to promote peace, promote talks and political settlement. This position is very magnanimous and is something that China has consistently and long-term adhered to. The Chinese side stated that China acts in accordance with principles in the international arena, and China will bear no less of its obligations. However, China will not take the blame, let alone pay for the actions of others, especially the wrong actions of others. The United States should stop smearing and exerting pressure and stop indiscriminately imposing unilateral sanctions on Chinese companies.
Fourth, it commented on the positive stance of the US, but to be honest, such comments may be more lethal than direct criticism. During the talks, Foreign Minister Wang Yi commented on the US position. First of all, President Biden has repeatedly reiterated that the United States does not seek a "new Cold War," does not seek to change China's system, does not seek to strengthen alliances against China, does not support "Taiwan independence," and has no intention of conflict with China; the United States does not seek to contain China's development. We do not seek "decoupling" from China and have no intention to hinder China's scientific and technological progress. A developing and successful China is a good thing for the world. During this visit, the US (Blinken) once again reiterated these statements. China’s comment on this is that having a commitment is better than having no commitment, and reaffirming a commitment is better than not reaffirming a commitment.
Therefore, China went on to say that China's attitude is consistent, that is, the United States should be true to its words and resolute in its actions, and cannot say one thing and do another. This interactive process is exactly the interaction between the teacher and the scumbag Xiong: it is good to have an attitude, but in the end, you still have to do your homework well and implement it into actions. Blinken also taught at a university, so this is more targeted.
Fifth, scold when it’s time to scold, push when it’s time to push, fight when it’s time to fight, and cooperate when it’s time to cooperate. China has a very clear hierarchy. As for the fentanyl issue that the United States is concerned about, although it is not a Chinese problem or a problem caused by China, China does not stand idly by and is willing to report to the American people (note that this is for the sake of the American people and does not want to The American people are being poisoned by drugs) to help. Following the San Francisco Vision, China arranged for State Councilor and Minister of Public Security Wang Xiaohong to meet with Secretary of State Blinken to exchange views on Sino-US anti-drug law enforcement cooperation and respond to the legitimate concerns of the United States to the best of its ability.
Before the 26th, on April 25, China arranged for Shanghai Municipal Party Committee Secretary Chen Jining to meet with Secretary of State Blinken to exchange views on exchanges and cooperation between Shanghai and the United States, and to promote Sino-US cooperation and exchanges at different levels. These candid, substantive and constructive meetings and talks further demonstrated China's sincerity, goodwill and tremendous efforts to improve Sino-US relations. It shows China's strategic ability to systematically manage Sino-US relations and its mastery of the art of diplomacy.
5. Release a five-point consensus to demonstrate China’s ability to promote the sound development of Sino-US relations and the relatively visible results it has achieved. To be honest, it is not easy to achieve these five achievements. These five points of consensus are as follows:
First, both sides agreed to continue to work hard to stabilize and develop Sino-US relations in accordance with the guidance of the two heads of state. The two sides affirmed the positive progress made in dialogue and cooperation between China and the United States in various fields since the meeting in San Francisco, and agreed to speed up the implementation of the important consensus reached by the two heads of state in San Francisco.
Second, both sides agreed to maintain high-level exchanges and contacts at all levels. Continue to play the role of the restored and newly established consultation mechanisms in the fields of diplomacy, economy, finance, commerce and other fields. Continue to carry out exchanges between the two militaries. Further promote Sino-US cooperation on drug control, climate change, and artificial intelligence.
Third, the two sides announced that they would hold the first meeting of the China-US Intergovernmental Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence; continue to advance consultations on the Guiding Principles of Sino-US relations; hold a new round of Sino-US consultations on Asia-Pacific affairs and Sino-US maritime affairs; and continue Sino-US consular consultations. The China-U.S. Anti-Drug Cooperation Working Group will hold a senior officials meeting. The United States welcomes China’s special envoy for climate change Liu Zhenmin to visit the United States.
Fourth, the two sides will take measures to expand people-to-people and cultural exchanges between the two countries, welcome students from each other's countries, and successfully host the 14th China-US High-Level Tourism Dialogue to be held in Xi'an, China, in May.
Fifth, the two sides maintain consultations on international and regional hotspot issues, and the special envoys of both sides strengthen communication.
Judging from the content, these five points of consensus fully reflect China’s precise grasp of the strategic foundation of Sino-US relations. Even the United States does not want to really break the situation. At the same time, there are still areas of pragmatic cooperation between China and the United States, and, most importantly, Importantly, as time goes by, China's ability to control Sino-US relations, manage differences, handle conflicts, and promote cooperation is growing overall.
These five points of consensus cover all aspects of China-U.S. relations, from macro-guiding principles to specific pragmatic cooperation. The willingness to reach these five points of consensus with the United States in the context of the current Sino-U.S. relations has fully demonstrated China's sincerity and goodwill and demonstrated China's sincerity and goodwill. The United States should highly cherish China's greatest efforts to safeguard and ensure that Sino-US relations have stopped falling, stabilized, and continued to develop for the better. If the United States can truly feel China's sincerity and goodwill, and has strategic courage and political responsibility, then there is reason to be cautiously optimistic that China-U.S. relations will usher in more positive changes this year that are conducive to stopping the decline, stabilizing, and restoring healthy development.
Subsequent developments, whether the United States Blinken began to talk about the so-called Chinese interference in the US presidential election, or the Chinese representative proposed at the United Nations Security Council to promote the investigation of the Nord Stream pipeline, showed that Sino-US relations continue to be in a new stage of great struggle, but equally, China is responsible. The will, ability and art of managing and pragmatically promoting Sino-US relations have been fully demonstrated in this visit. People have reason to maintain a cautious but optimistic attitude towards the future of China, the United States and the world, because the power of justice is continuing to grow and make steady progress.