PREAMBLE
Among China’s scholarly elite, few are willing to express publicly a distinctive candidate preference in the America’s presidential 2024 election. Many may be viewing it as a choice between “two bowls of poison”, as Fudan Gong Jiong (龚炯),University professor Zhao Minghao (赵明昊) has repeatedly argued.
Gong Jiong (龚炯), author of today's piece, preference is for Kamala Harris, expecting her China policy to continue Biden’s stringent but broadly predictable approach towards Beijing. Trump’s anti-China stance poses too big a threat to the PRC’s geoeconomic and geopolitical interests, he says.
Gong is also concerned that Trump might succeed in ending the war in Ukraine, thereby prompting the US to complete its Pivot to Asia to confront China head on.
Related Readings in csloh.substack :
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US coming war with China
US-CHINA Relationship
Trump’s conviction
This article - by Gong Jiong (龚炯) - was published in the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies on 12 September 2024
(machine-translate converted)
“I started researching US-China relations around 2017 when Trump initiated [his] trade war. By the 2020 election, we began tracking US politics and elections, so I’ve done [quite a bit of] research on this topic. I’m very pleased to have this opportunity [to discuss this matter with you]. Today, I will mainly talk about the Republican and Democratic parties in the [context of the] 2024 election, and will then discuss the war in Ukraine.”
“The current state of the election is roughly as described [see original article in Chinese for Gong’s full take on this]. My view is that it remains extremely close. Harris might have a slight advantage, but her victory is by no means a given. Yesterday [Note: Gong made this speech at the end of August], there was an article in Politico warning the Democrats not to get carried away by the success of the Democratic National Convention. The race is still very tight and not as favourable as they might imagine. When I watched the Democratic National Convention, I used two words to describe it: a convention of “unity” [团结的大会] and a convention of “triumph” [胜利的大会]. The event was filled with a celebratory atmosphere. At the end of the convention, the entire stadium was filled with balloons. However, the situation is not as optimistic as they might believe—it remains a very close election.”
“A Harris rather than a Trump presidency would be more beneficial for China [对中国更加有利]. There is no doubt about that [这是毫无疑问的]. If Trump were to come to power, it would be a real pain [很麻烦]. In this sense, China is very fortunate. Trump was initially all but guaranteed to win, but then the Democrats had a bit of an internal shake-up in which the “king was forced to abdicate” [逼宫], and suddenly the situation was reversed so quickly. Now, the two sides are evenly matched, with Harris having a slight edge.”
“On the US policy towards China in the post-Biden era and its impact. Let’s analyse this a bit. From the Chinese government's standpoint, between Harris and Biden, Beijing has stated that it does not interfere in US elections. This is true — I know that CCTV and the English-language channel CGTN deliberately avoid giving [too much] coverage of the US election, fearing being accused by the US government of interfering in its elections. So we don’t tend to interfere, but people always have preferences [但人总是有偏好的]. I believe that the impact on China will differ greatly depending on who is elected.”
“In my view, if Harris comes to power, there won’t be significant changes in the [US’s] China policy, but neither should we expect major improvements … However, if Trump comes to power, the earth will quake and the mountains will shake [地动山摇]—US-China relations will face perilous times ahead [惊涛骇浪].”
“Trump is without a doubt a white supremacist. He harbours resentment over the Covid-19 pandemic and has a desire for revenge. Based on Trump’s repeated remarks, [it is clear that] he attributes the fundamental reason for his losing the 2020 election to China.
Everyone can recall that in early 2020, he was still very optimistic and full of complacency about his bid to remain in power. But the situation then took a sudden turn, which ended in his losing the presidential throne. This was in large part due to his failure in handling the Covid-19 pandemic. So, he largely blames China for his defeat in the 2020 election. He frequently refers to the “Wuhan Virus” and uses terms like “confront”. He holds a [deep] grudge against China. He says he wants to impose a 60% tariff [on Chinese imports] and fully decouple from us.”
“It is said that if Trump wins, Robert Lighthizer would become Secretary of Commerce, and Peter Navarro, who is even more hostile towards China, needs no introduction. During the [Republican] National Convention, I saw at least two people go on stage with this large book in hand, of which one chapter was on trade issues. The book was a thick one, nine hundred pages long, full of articles. I read the section on trade issues carefully. It was written by Navarro, and from his words, you can sense his deep hostility and prejudice towards China. So if Trump is elected, tariffs and decoupling from China will be comprehensive —without a doubt.”
“Even more disadvantageous [for us] is that he would resolve the Ukraine war swiftly, allowing the US to pivot quickly towards Asia. Since Obama proposed the “Pivot to Asia” many years ago, two presidents have come and gone, yet the US still hasn’t fully pivoted to Asia. There have been too many impediments in Washington’s way. China has been very fortunate: the financial crisis, Covid-19, the war in Ukraine and a series of other events have prevented America from [fully] pivoting to Asia. However, I believe that if Trump comes to power, he really will make this pivot.”
“The war in Ukraine has an impact on the US election, and Washington will at least help the Ukrainian forces hold onto the newly gained territory in Kursk until the election is over. From a longer-term perspective, whether the war in Ukraine can end, reach some form of a ceasefire or something along those lines, it will have a significant impact on US-China relations. This is because it is tied to the [US’s] “Pivot to Asia” or “Pivot to China”. As long as the war in Ukraine continues or persists in some form or another, it will not be easy for the US to shift its focus to Asia fully.”
“I believe that if Trump is elected, some American companies operating in China will be greatly affected. Foreign investment in China, especially from US companies, has been in continuous decline. This is a big problem. The root causes include of course China's rising costs and factors [linked to our] economy. But I believe that geopolitics play a crucial role too. Such uncertainty in US-China ties makes investors feel insecure.”
“The decline in investment from American businesses, particularly in China, is actually increasingly a reflection of geopolitical factors. As US-China relations become more strained, this trend will only become more pronounced. Investors feel insecure not only because of rising costs [in our country] but also because they worry about the uncertainty that cloaks future US-China ties. For companies that have already invested in China, they will reassess the risks involved and may gradually reduce their operations in China to avoid the hazards associated with potential future conflicts and the risk of sanctions.”
“On the other hand, if Harris were to be elected, although she may continue Biden’s policies, this does not mean [that we should expect] significant improvements. US investments in China will still face the same challenges, since the fundamental problems in US-China relations have not been resolved. Even without Trump’s extreme policies, and even though the Harris administration may prove more cautious in some respects, businesses will still feel the uncertainty, especially in sectors that touch upon technology, intellectual property and national security.”
“Therefore, regardless of who comes to power, the complexity of US-China relations will continue to impact global markets. This will be [felt] especially by companies and investors heavily reliant on US-China trade. In the coming years, multinational companies will operate in an increasingly uncertain global environment, obliging them to make strategic adjustments based on the new geopolitical landscape to ensure their businesses can survive and thrive under these new conditions.”
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