Towing the ship Sierra Madre away

imagining the worst-case scenario

Jun 03, 2024

PREAMBLE

Continuing to provoke China around the Second Thomas Shoal, Philippine President Marcos is seeking to whip up anti-China sentiment and bolster his popularity.

In recent years, Beijing has increasingly attempted to block Manila from resupplying marines stationed on the Sierra Madre, a rusting ship that the Philippines grounded there in 1999. Beijing now accuses Manila of reneging on an alleged agreement made several years ago to tow the ship away.

Though threats against Manilla have been voiced by China’s establishment intellectuals, emphasis continues to be on preserving peace and relative stability in the South China Sea and avoiding any escalatory spiral.

Zhao Hongwei (赵宏伟) is calling on his government to put an immediate end to Manila’s provocations (as perceived from China) by simply towing the Philippine’s Sierra Madre ship away.

Zhao Hongwei (赵宏伟)
Published by 海外看世界 on 15.04.2024
Translated by Robert A. Kapp

Every so often, Marcos Junior sends a boat out to Ren’ai Jiao [i.e. the Second Thomas Shoal]. His target is China, great and cultured. The cost and risk are low, but the tormenting effect is significant. Why not take advantage of this and stir things up to the end of my term, in other words for another [four-to-]five years? Marcos aims to degrade Filipino sentiment toward China, maybe even to ignite old-time anti-China emotions and violence [反华排华动乱]. In this scenario, Marcos becomes the hero valiantly battling to resist China and save the Philippines, [thereby] gaining widespread support and successfully amending the constitution to give himself six more years in office – and six additional years of stirring the pot.

During this five- to eleven-year period, an anti-China alliance among the U.S., Japan and the Philippines will likely materialise. If the constitution is successfully amended, it could remove the provision that prohibits foreign troops on Philippine soil, allowing U.S. and Japanese forces permanently to station in the Philippines and blockade China. What is more, this could lead to the formation of an Indo-Pacific version of NATO, involving South Korea, the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and India as well as the dissolution of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and destruction of the East Asian Community of Shared Destiny. Taiwan would then be turned into a defence objective [保卫对象].

Looking at all this from a bottom-line perspective, China’s policy objectives are crystal clear: never allow Marcos to build his brand by grabbing the initiative and playing havoc with China for the next five or even eleven years.

Policy rooted in bottom-line thinking requires settling on lowest-risk or risk-free objectives. To put it casually, this means: “We want Ren’ai Jiao at very low risk.” This requires careful planning [做沙盘推演].

It must be resolved quickly, without allowing Marcos to seize the initiative and continue to cause disruptions for ten years or more. The zero-risk requirement means not harming Philippine soldiers and escorting them from the shoal, with the area cleared the very same day and the Filipino vessel towed away. [Our] Special Forces should come up with several execution plans and adopt the best one. For instance, small drones could be used to empty the vessel’s water supply. After a night without water, the Filipino soldiers would surrender and leave the ship.

We have to avoid ASEAN [replicating the KMT’s 1931 fear of] “Shocking our Friendly Neighbours” [Note: Zhao is referring to an essay by Lu Xun, click here for the English translation (p.159)]. [We must] appeal with sorrow and indignation to ASEAN countries and urge them to persuade Marcos Jr. that the Philippines should not violate the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, nor destroy the regional order. The Philippines should not bite the hand that feeds it [吃里扒外] and cause divisions within ASEAN and East Asia, thereby raising the risk of war. If this can be tolerated, what can’t [是可忍孰不可忍]? Enough is enough. To maintain peace and order in the Asia-Pacific, we must jointly and promptly put an end to this. If they refuse to heed this call, China [itself] may reluctantly have to find ways of maintaining order. However, [we] will adhere strictly to the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and must not resort to force, nor land on and occupy Ren’ai Jiao.

This summer should be the time for action [行动时机,应该选在今夏].

First of all, if the shoal can be cleared within a day using an approach similar to the one discussed in points one and two, the White House, lacking any action plans of its own, will only gape and complain. But China’s clearing of the shoal would expose Biden's helplessness. This would deal a small but sharp blow to his presidential campaign, which could potentially drive him out of the White House. A new president typically doesn't carry the burden of his or her predecessor's failures. This could lead to Sino-American relations turning over a new leaf. The United States may then play its cards more cautiously, thereby enabling both countries to meet each other half way [有利于中美关系相向而行].

Second, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida is mired in political battles and may not survive September’s election. Losing Ren’ai Jiao this summer might be the last straw leading to his overthrow. A new Prime Minister would probably not dare to try China’s patience again. This could also lead to Sino-Japanese relations turning over a new leaf. As for South Korea, the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India and others, they would mill around like a leaderless herd, each having learned the lesson not to play the fake victim.

Third, Marcos, his eyes brimming with tears, would suffer a total defeat, ending his political career. China could then show magnanimity in the old imperial manner by offering him an amnesty and a new position. And since China had not occupied the shoal, the Philippines would have no grievance to remember. Friendly neighbours in and around the South China Sea would not be shocked and would only look at the Philippine leader as having gotten what he deserved.

Finally, thanks to this bloodless operation, everybody in the Western Pacific would see who truly calls the shots here today! With [China’s] leadership established [盟主立], the rules settled, the South China Sea and East China Sea under control, the Asia Pacific secure, outsiders sent packing and with countries coming to pay their respects to us [迎诸邦来朝], the East Asian Community of Shared Destiny will naturally emerge.

The Author