Notes
The foreign intelligence (FSB) chief Sergey Narishkin announced that a coup attempt had failed within hours. The Russian authorities, then were waiting for Prigozhin to make his next move, (M.K. Bhadrakumar).
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has recalled that the US intelligence agencies were counting on the success of the coup on June 24; even imputing that to have arrested Gen. Sergei Surovikin, (New York Times, 30/06/2023), in a post-mutiny crackdown.
According to Jeffrey Sommers - Professor of Political Economy & Public Policy in the Department of African & African Diaspora Studies and a Senior Fellow, Institute of World Affairs, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee - only 24,000 Wagner forces and maybe less than 200 vehicles were on the march toward Moscow.
On hindsight, and with later factual evidence, there was no danger to Moscow. Reading the evolving events, the Russian airforce could have destroyed the Wagner convoys on their way to Moscow at a few minutes notice. Indeed, Prigozhin's “troops” in Rostov-on-Don were surrounded by the Chechen troops of Ramzan Kadyrov who had rushed to the city and were prepared to fight Wagner down.
According to Cavan Hogue, Prigozhin’s attempted coup appears to have failed for lack of support from the Russian military; [to plan or prevent coup, good to read: “Seizing Power: The Strategic Logic of Military Coups,” by Naunihal Singh, and “How to Prevent Coups d’Etat: Counterbalancing and Regime Survival,” by Erica De Bruin].
On Monday last, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the nation emphasising “restraint, cohesion and patriotism” that the Russian people had shown, their “civic solidarity and “high consolidation,” and their “firm line… (in) taking an explicit position of supporting constitutional order.”
Second, Putin highlighted that the Russian leadership acted swiftly, decisively and effectively — “all necessary decisions to neutralise the emerged threat and protect the constitutional system, the life and security of our citizens were made instantly, from the very beginning of the events.”
Third, Putin went on to roundly condemn the “mutiny plotters” as people full of malignity and evil intentions.
Fourth, Putin explained the rationale behind his decision to differentiate “the majority of Wagner Group soldiers and commanders (who) are also Russian patriots, loyal to their people and their state.” Putin then expressed “gratitude” for the right decision they took “not to engage in fratricidal bloodshed and stopped before reaching the point of no return.”
He then offered to them the options of signing a contract with the Defence Ministry or other law enforcement or security agency or to “return home” — or even go to Belarus.
A succinct analysis by former Indian ambassador M.K. Bhadrakumar has this to say:
(US SoS) Blinken has piled up a consistent record for being horribly wrong on his assessments on Russia …….
In this case, he has reason to feel embittered particularly because of the spectacular unity of the Russian state, political elite, media, regional and federal bureaucracy, and the military and security establishment in rallying behind Putin. Arguably, Putin’s political stature is now unchallengeable and unassailable in Russia and the Americans have to live with that reality long after Joe Biden’s departure from the scene.
So, what eventually emerges is that Putin approved a general amnesty for those involved in the coup attempt and virtually granted “safe passage” for Prigozhin and his followers to leave for Belarus, as quid pro quo for giving up the coup attempt, while at the same time, making a gracious offer to integrate the Wagner fighters into the Russian state organs or military in the fulness of time.
The Russian public will accept this, though Prigozhin's can of worms is prised opened, exposing:
Between May 2022 and May 2023 alone, the Wagner Group received 86,262 million rubles (approx. $1 billion) from the state to pay military salaries and bonuses… But while the state covered all of the Wagner Group’s funding needs, the company’s owner, Concord Catering, received from the state ….or earned, 80 billion rubles ($940 million) through Voentorg as the army’s food and canteen provider.
NB:
Prigozhina’s mother Violetta Prigozhin has been listed as the owner of Concord Catering, and through State oligarch patronage, the Concord Management and Consulting (a construction and real estate development entity), and LLC Megaline got construction contracts for the Russian military in 2016.
Further, “leaked intelligence documents” obtained by The Washington Post earlier this year show Wagner building a veritable empire in Africa, where Prigozhin provides security for government regimes, sometimes in exchange for valuable mineral rights.
A deeper insight on this outfit can be distilled from Band of Brothers: The Wagner Group and the Russian State, (CSIS 2020), and Adam Tooze Chartbook #224 write-up; view +40-min WSJ, Shadow Men.
From China’s angle to this incident, this brief rebellion threatened to upset the current balance of China-Russia relations because a more unstable Russia would diminish its ability to support China in an eventual conflict with the US, (Jocelyn Chey).
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning 26 June statement was “China supports Russia in maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity.”
On a wider perspective, the Wagner Incident could have far-reaching repercussions on the course of Russia's transborder special military operations and the domestic situation.
On one aspect, proliferation of parastatal armed units like the Wagner's and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s Akhmat units could herald into a neo-feudal civil war that fractures the state.
Bruno Macaes, in a New Stateman 27/06/2023 piece concludes with characteristic insight but maybe with rather overstatement that what the Putsch indicates is that the Russian state is hollow.
This may mean that structural changes of the Russian military system have to be even greater than the Chechen conflict, according to an opinated piece in the Russia Global Affairs.
Next, a pair of China's think-tankers’ thoughts on this sordid episode:
Xu Wenhong is a researcher on Russia studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and has this to say to China Daily:
Peaceful resolution good for all
The Russia-Ukraine crisis had reached a stalemate when the Wagner private military group suddenly incited an armed operation.
Against the backdrop of the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Wagner group rose, with the tacit approval of high-level Russian officials, to achieve remarkable results in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, intense conflicts between the Wagner group and high-level officials of the Russian Defense Ministry triggered the mutiny.
Fortunately, the crisis has been resolved for now, following the mediation by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
This event fully demonstrates Russia's national character and modern-day power politics. The resolution of this crisis is critical to Russia's overall national interests and conforms to the common wishes of the ordinary people. Its safe resolution can strengthen the Russian government's consistent foreign policy.
Although the crisis has been resolved on the surface, the mutiny by the Wagner group reveals that social, economic and political problems have been rising since the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Yu Sui - a professor at the China Center for Contemporary World Studies - expresses:
Incident alarming
Within a day, the Wagner private military group staged an armed action against Moscow and arrived at a compromise following the mediation of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, which was a very sobering incident.
The Wagner group's coming into existence and growing into a strong force in Russia is something out of the ordinary. It is akin to an old Chinese saying: to use a dog's tail to pretend it is a mink's when the latter is insufficient. Maybe the incorporation of mercenaries into the Russian army was the best option for both the Russian government and the Wagner group, but it reminded of the Chinese saying about feeding a tiger and then inviting trouble.
The conflict between mercenaries and the Russian army is only the tip of the iceberg about the inherent contradictions in Russian society.
The success of Lukashenko's mediation is of utmost importance, as Wagner's group may not see how risky the military action could have been. It may not have amounted to a civil war as some media outlets have suggested, but it undoubtedly rings an alarm bell for Russia.
OR