The Kaliningrad Oblast Blockade
An Implication on the U.S. Asia Indo-Pacific Basin strategy
1st July 2022
With recent Russia’s successful operations in Ukraine, and the inability of EU to react except through economic proxy warfare, there is a refocus in NATO planning. The blockade imposed on Kaliningrad on June 20th by Lithuania, and approved by the European Union, is an insurgence of western capital armed fist against all socialist nations and emerging low income countries of the world.
1. February 2016, The Atlantic Council (USA-NATO think tank), issued a report, “Alliance At Risk": Russia is now a de facto strategic adversary ; that NATO powers do not recognize Russia’s sovereignty over Kaliningrad.
2. In 2017, the Rand Corporation Report on the prospects of a conflict in Kaliningrad: scenario-wargaming whether Russia would treat an attack on Kaliningrad as ‘an attack on the Russian homeland’, but that the city Kaliningrad need to be neutralised, besides the Competing with Russia Militarily There is also the Brookings’ report on Why is Kaliningrad at the center of a new Russia-NATO faceoff?
3. Elements of U.S. Army’s 2nd Cavalry Regiment, already stationed in Poland, is now joined by the 82nd Airborne Division not far from the country’s border with Kaliningrad, (see Brookings, Strengthening the US and NATO defense postures in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine).
4. Canadian army units are already in Latvia, near Riga, along with other NATO forces which are part of NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence force.
5. Politico June 19th reported that 650 German soldiers had joined other NATO units and were now in Lithuania.
see also cnbc Moscow and NATO could be about to clash over Russia's European exclave Kaliningrad
6. Biden’s visit (sideline of G7 Meet) to the U.S. 82nd Airborne Division was to create moral boost to another threat against Russia at Kaliningrad. There were press reporting restrictions on the of the 82nd Division movements since then.
7. On March 10, CIA's outfit Jamestown Foundation stated that the U.S. and NATO should seize Kaliningrad, beginning with a blockade of the oblast by closing the road and rail links through Lithuania and Poland, as well as cutting the natural gas pipelines to it.
8. On March 10th by General Waldermar Skrzpczak, former commander of Polish land forces, stated that, “The enclave has been under Russian occupation since 1945, "stressing that the territory historically belonged to Prussia and Poland”, and that, “We have the right to have disputes over the territory occupied by Russia.” There is no historical basis for such a claim but clearly designed to provoke a Russian response and get people in the west used to the idea that Russia is “occupying foreign territory” in order to manipulate the western public into supporting a move to seize the oblast.
9. Prior to Russia near-border operations in Ukraine, B52H strategic bomber carried out a simulated bombing of the Russian Baltic Fleet’s Kaliningrad base.
10. Once Russian jet fighter chased away a Spanish Air Force aircraft that approached too close to the plane carrying Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu in Kaliningrad air space, (Reuters August 13 2019).
Video HERE:
12. On March 28th the Pentagon announced that, 'In coordination with the German government, six U.S. Navy EA-18G Growler aircraft are scheduled to arrive at Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany, to bolster readiness, enhance NATO’s collective defense posture and further increase air integration capabilities with our allies and partner nations.’
13. The Growler is an Electronic Warfare plane that would likely be useful in the event of an operation against Kaliningrad to suppress Russian air defences - and represent a direct existential threat against Russia.
14. Strategically, NATO & US think tanks motives are to push Russia out of its main naval base protecting Russia’s access to the North Sea and Atlantic, to threaten and control the approaches St. Petersburg itself, and to attempt a trade blockade of the city.
15. At a NATO summit in Madrid, POTUS announced a permanent headquarters in Poland, two additional F-35 fighter jet squadrons for Britain and additional rotational combat brigades in Romania, among other moves.
16. Finland has finalized the purchase of 64 F-35 fighter planes from U.S. company Lockheed Martin early this year,
In terms of pure geography, if Finland joined NATO it would add another 800 miles to the military alliance’s border with Russia. And NATO member states would control key areas in the Baltic Sea, including Sweden’s Gotland island — not so far across the water from Kaliningrad, Russia’s enclave in Europe.
17. Politico had reported that there was also an implicit understanding Turkey may get F-16 fighter jets as a consequence of dropping its opposition to Sweden and Finland joining NATO.
Pentagon “fully supports Turkey’s modernization plans for its F-16 fleet,” which would amount to a $6 billion purchase of 40 Block 70 F-16 warplanes and about 80 Lockheed Martin modernization kits.
18. France angered some NATO allies by warning that Russia must not be humiliated despite Putin's 'historic' mistake, Macron had said.
19. This blockade is meant to provoke Russia into attacking a NATO member in order for NATO to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty.
20. Though leaders of Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea attended the Madrid summit as observers, marking the first time that this Transatlantic alliance has brought over some of its trans-Pacific allies, too, the rewritten NATO Strategic Concept has a big change from the last document in that it did not mention China at all.
REFERENCE
Foreign Policy, Will the Kaliningrad Crisis Lead to War?
Foreign Policy, Alliance History and the Future NATO