PREAMBLE
This article should be read in an expectation of Colby's Strategy of Denial being adopted by the next POTUS as the probable positioning in the Asia-Pacific basin regarding the China challenge, On Geoeconomics #69, 6/07/2024.
In February 2018, Trump has signed the U.S. Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific, formulated by the U.S. National Security Council as the strategic goal and action guide of the United States in the Indo-Pacific region.
The elements in Colby's Strategy of Denial lay with the monopoly capitalist ruling class in its preparation for the catastrophic world war, that is, to initiate a pre-emptive strike on China regarding the Taiwan issue.
ON NON-PEACEFUL REUNIFICATION – HOW SHOULD WE PREPARE FOR THIS?
Jin Canrong (金灿荣); first
published by Guancha.cn on 22 June 2024
On the issue of Taiwan, looking at the current situation objectively and from various perspectives, although mainland China has always considered peaceful reunification to be its preferred option, I as an observer believe the likelihood of reunification through non-peaceful means is higher [我认为非和平统一的现实可能性更大]. So we must prepare ourselves for this.
The key to preparing for non-peaceful reunification is military readiness.
The recent “Joint Sword-2024A” [military] exercises had one notable feature [compared with former exercises] – a cold start, meaning that they were not announced in advance. Once they were announced, the troops were already nearby. Furthermore, these military exercises covered a wider area, took place closer to Taiwan, involved a larger number of troops and had a stronger flavour of actual combat. Realistically speaking, the means currently employed by the [PLA’s] Eastern Theatre Command are already sufficient.
Of course, if we do take action, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) might want to handle it more impressively [解放军可能希望处理得更漂亮点]. To do this, they need to prepare for the worst-case scenario in which the United States and its allies would spare no effort when intervening.
Furthermore, military enthusiasts probably know that amphibious sea-to-land assaults are the most difficult type of warfare. Taiwan's defence system is very good because it was improved continuously during the two Chiangs' era [i.e. Chiang Kai-shek and Chiang Ching-kuo] and has gone on being enhanced ever since. Add to that substantial support from the US. This has led some military experts to believe that Taiwan’s defence system surpasses even that of Israel.
Bearing in mind Taiwan’s strong defensive capabilities and the inherent difficulty of conducting amphibious warfare, coupled with a full-scale intervention by the US and its allies, we must acknowledge that liberating Taiwan by force is not an easy task.
Of course, I also believe that our PLA has many undisclosed strategies and that they are working hard on these. But despite the modernisation of our military making very good progress, we have not fought in an actual war for many years now, so we must prepare ourselves for this.
The second most important preparation [for non-peaceful reunification] is economic readiness.
Economically, as I mentioned in Guancha.cn’s year-end “Answer Show”, China currently faces a major problem: our lack of economic strategic autonomy [缺乏经济战略自主性].
Regarding the size of China's economy, if based on the constant exchange rate of 2011, China's GDP is 79% of that of the US; when using the current exchange rate, it is 65%; and if based on purchasing power parity, we fluctuate between 120% to 160%, thus exceeding the US’s GDP. So the size of China's economy can be said to be substantial.
But China's economy is also quite fragile. We need to import food and, with 169 million tons imported last year, we are the world's biggest food importer. In terms of oil, our dependency on foreign sources is 73%. For natural gas, it is 42%. We also lack many minerals.
Further, major weakness of China's economy is its lack of markets.
Our production volume is large. According to data from the World Trade Organization, in 2023 China accounted for 14.2% of the world's total exports, thereby maintaining its position as the largest trading nation for seven consecutive years. And compared with products manufactured in other countries, our goods are both inexpensive and of good quality.
Even more worth mentioning is that our business reputation is particularly good. This point wasn’t emphasised much before but should be mentioned more in the future. Suppose a foreign businessperson places an order in China and requests delivery by the 15th of next month, we Chinese will certainly work overtime to meet the deadline. If this client were somewhat stupidly to place this order in India, come the 15th, the Indians are likely to say, “Oh? Was there such an order?” and then start making excuses.
Overall, China's manufacturing and product quality are excellent. However, we face a troubling predicament: our domestic market cannot absorb so many products, so we have to rely on international markets, especially the American market. For this reason, we subsidise [our products] with export tax rebates amounting to over a trillion yuan annually.
With insufficient domestic demand and a lack of [diversified] markets, I describe this as lacking economic strategic autonomy. This is a problem we need to address.
In addition to military and economic preparations, political unity is also essential. Currently, opinions in China on whether or not to adopt non-peaceful means for our reunification [with Taiwan] are not yet completely aligned.
Furthermore, we must strive to gain the understanding of the international community. Many countries fully support our “One China” principle, [but] we need to continue to work on this.
For instance, the Joint Statement on Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination for the New Era, released on 16 May 2024 by the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of their diplomatic relations, clearly states: "The Russian side reaffirms its adherence to the One China principle, recognises Taiwan as an inalienable part of the People's Republic of China, opposes any form of 'Taiwan independence', and firmly supports China's measures to safeguard its sovereignty, protect its territorial integrity and achieve national reunification."—[Readers should] pay attention to the latter half of this sentence.
In conclusion, the issue of Taiwan is a unique challenge in the process of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Currently, this challenge is intensifying, not because of mainland China, but due to the US and to the pro-independence Taiwanese authorities. In a sense, the development of the situation is beyond our control, and if they make a move, we might have no choice [but to respond].
I must emphasise again: although we are determined to achieve reunification, our preferred option is still peaceful reunification. However, the reality is that [our] hope for peaceful reunification is dwindling [越来越渺茫]. Thus, we need to prepare ourselves for reunification through non-peaceful means. This includes military and economic preparations as well as preparations with regards to our domestic politics and [gaining] international understanding. All of these require serious work.
The Author
