PREAMBLE
Today’s edition was put together by Paddy Stephens, a new contributor to the newsletter. — Thomas
a reposting from
Related Readings on the China-Taiwan issues in csloh.substack
China-Taiwan evolving relationship
Taiwan: on non-peaceful reunification
President Lai’s speech for “Double Ten”, the national day of the Republic of China (ROC), split opinions. To many western analysts, it demonstrated restraint, with a vow to uphold the status quo and repeated use of the name the Republic of China, a nod to the One China Principle. But Beijing was furious that he repeated a claim from his inauguration speech that the ROC and PRC are "not subordinate to each other", also adding that the PRC “has no right to represent Taiwan”. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) drills in response set single-day records.
It is tempting to see in such shows of force Beijing’s abandonment of “peaceful reunification”. But in this interview, international relations scholar Xia Liping (夏立平) offers a different analysis. Peaceful “reunification” is difficult with Lai as President, but still possible. The US does not want war and, though US-China relations could remain poor for years, in the long-term the US could be forced to cooperate with China. The next ten years are crucial.
His key point is that over the next decade, China must surpass the US in GDP and technology. If it succeeds, and strengthens the PLA at the same time, cross-Strait relations will move towards reunification. China’s strategy needs three elements: powerful military deterrence, diplomatic and economic efforts, and bold action to seize opportunities when they arise.
Xia argues that, were China to achieve economic and scientific predominance in the next decade, it would also force changes in US policy. Washington would eventually have to switch from strategic competition with China to cooperation. It would have to move away from the zero-sum mentality he sees as typical of “white people”, and recognise the mutual benefits of cooperation.
In the meantime, he is not bullish about America. He predicts that Kamala Harris will win the election by a narrow margin, which could lead to major turmoil. Political polarisation and social issues have weakened the country’s influence abroad; a focus on the financial industry, workforce issues, and hostility to migration have hollowed out its manufacturing.
Paddy Stephens
Key Points
With consensus in the US favouring strategic competition with China, Sino-US relations could remain in a stalemate for a decade or more.
But if China were to overtake the US in GDP and establish a lead in most areas of advanced technology, Washington would be forced to cooperate more.
The fact that Lai is in power in Taiwan makes peaceful reunification very difficult. The US wants to avoid a war over Taiwan, which it could lose, yet it continues to use Lai to stir up trouble.
But peaceful reunification is still possible. China must continue to strengthen its military, increase its attractiveness to Taiwanese citizens, garner international support, and surpass the US economically and technologically.
China must be ready to act swiftly if and when an opportunity for reunification arises.
Beijing has until 2049 to solve this issue. The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation depends on it.
Kamala Harris will probably win the US election by a narrow margin, which could result in major turmoil within the country.
A second Trump term would inject uncertainty into US-China relations. It is unclear what his ascendency would mean for Taiwan.
“White people” tend to think in zero-sum terms. This US election is their last attempt to continue dominating American society.
Political polarisation and social issues have divided America’s attention and energy, weakening its diplomacy.
The Scholar
Name: Xià Lìpíng (夏立平)
Year of birth: Unknown (age estimate: 58-59)
Position: Professor, School of Political Science and International Relations, Tongji University; Director of the Tongji Centre for Polar and Oceanic Studies
Previously: Associate Professor, Institute for Strategic Studies, National Defence University (1989-1996); Director, Department of Strategic Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (1996-2007); Dean, School of Political Science and International Relations, Tongji University (2009-2014);
Research focus: US-China relations; East Asian security; China’s foreign strategy; Arctic security and governance; Nuclear non-proliferation.
Education: BA and Master of Laws from PLA University of Foreign Languages (1984-1990); PhD East China Normal University (2007)
Experience overseas: Atlantic Council (1994-95), Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey (1999), Stockholm University (2005), Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung EU Office in Brussels (2009), University of Bonn (2010), NTU Singapore (2011) and the University of Pennsylvania (2013).
