a reposting from
Mar 21, 2025
Editors’s Note: The following transcript features Sinification’s interview with Mr. Mao Keji, a burgeoning scholar who initially gained public popularity and recognition from China’s intellectual circles for his expertise in Sino-Indian relations, and increasingly for his insights into China’s global status more broadly.
1. Observing Trump’s Return: The Perils of Radical Change
Question 1: You have been a visiting scholar at Harvard University for the past six months and have therefore witnessed Trump’s return to power firsthand. What was your reaction to his re-election, and how would you assess his first few weeks in office?
Mao Keji: I don’t have a particularly strong opinion on Trump’s re-election: I wouldn’t say I like or dislike him. That being said, I do have a general impression [总体感觉] of him which is that, in some sense, Trump’s victory represented a kind of “course correction” [拨乱反正] in American politics. In other words, America’s problems— social, economic and political—had become so entrenched [积重难返] that they could no longer be fixed by “politics as usual” [无法通过常规的政治过程纠正]. As a result, voters turned to Trump, an unconventional politician, to push through bold and drastic [大刀阔斧] reforms.
To be honest, as a Chinese observer, many of Trump and Musk’s actions in recent weeks have really shocked me [震撼]. You could say it has been a real eye-opener [大开眼界] for me. For example, Trump openly expressed his desire for Canada to become America’s 51st state and even floated the idea of annexing Greenland. Yet just a few months ago, the Biden administration was accusing China of “undermining the rules-based international order”. It is astonishing [让我很吃惊] how the once-sacred [被奉为圭臬] norms of international politics can apparently be discarded overnight, replaced by the law of the jungle [弱肉强食]. Frankly, I have lost a lot of respect for the US because of these childish political antics [政治儿戏].
Moreover, Musk’s push to reform the federal government through DOGE with the support of Trump reminds me of the actions of two Soviet leaders. First, Khrushchev, who, in his secret speech at the 20th Congress of the Soviet Communist Party, exposed many of Stalin’s dark deeds [众多黑幕]. Although this consolidated his political position in the post-Stalin era, it permanently damaged the Soviet Party’s domestic authority and international moral standing, with the Sino-Soviet split being the most direct result. [Similarly,] Musk and Trump’s tireless [不遗余力] efforts to expose the so-called “deep state” are certainly beneficial to the new administration, but the damage they are inflicting on America’s institutions and moral authority is irreversible and incalculable, with potentially terrifying consequences.
Second, Gorbachev, who believed the Soviet Union was in terminal decline, forced through bold reforms [推出了力度极大] based on his “new thinking”. He intended to address issues through reform to put the Soviet Union back on track. However, due to the huge scale of the reforms and insufficient preparation, he ended up unintentionally bringing about the USSR’s collapse. Similarly, Trump, seeing America’s problems, also wants to bring in bold and drastic reforms [大刀阔斧改革], but his radical [激进] approach is likely to lead to internal unrest or even civil war [内战]. In conclusion, I have serious doubts about such radical [激进] reforms, and I also question whether they are truly motivated by America’s interests or just the self-interest of these individuals [他们的私利].
2. Deterring Trump: Meeting Strength with Strength
Question 2: Let’s say you yourself were faced with someone like Trump, how would you respond to his threats and tariffs? How would you deter him from pursuing his pressure tactics while earning his respect?
Mao Keji: Trump is a businessman by nature; he is used to cost-benefit analyses, but less sensitive [敏感] to long-term strategic planning. Therefore, I feel the best strategy for responding to his pressure is to demonstrate that you are both able and willing to impose costs [on him]. At the same time, showing weakness or displaying anxiety in front of him will not get you any sympathy. On the contrary, it will only invite further aggression [会招致他得寸进尺的攻击].
Unfortunately, Canada, Denmark, Germany and Ukraine have all proven this point. As obedient [言听计从] allies who have always followed Washington’s lead, they trusted the US too much and never had a strategy for counteracting or resisting it. In the face of Trump’s threats, they were helpless [束手无策] and ultimately suffered humiliating blows [遭到侮辱性的敲打]. To me, this is a lesson in realism [这是一种非常现实主义的领悟]: surrendering just invites further humiliation [投降是自取其辱]; only by resisting to the very end can one turn the situation around [必须抵抗到底，才能翻转局面]. Therefore, while maintaining respect and decorum towards him, I would demonstrate China’s firm will and ability to retaliate against the US. This would ensure he takes decisions in full awareness that the costs of squeezing China will far outweigh the benefits, thereby deterring him from engaging in risky behaviour [采取冒险行动].
3. Trump’s Return: Consensus and Disagreement in China
Question 3: Sinification, as you know, focuses on China’s intellectual elite and their perspectives on the world. How have Chinese scholars and analysts—particularly those of your “post-90s” (90后) generation—reacted to Trump’s return? What key points of consensus and disagreement have you observed so far?
Mao Keji: Many of us, myself included, have not been particularly surprised by Trump’s return. In fact, it even seemed inevitable: if it weren’t Trump, someone else like him would have emerged. This is because we all believe that many of America’s domestic issues have become too deeply-entrenched to be fixable [积重难返]. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has shown that neither the Democrat nor Republican establishment can resolve these issues through conventional political processes.
There is actually very little disagreement among young Chinese intellectuals on the point that America’s internal problems are deeply entrenched and difficult to resolve. However, there are often disagreements on whether Trump’s reforms have the potential to save America [拯救美国]. Optimists believe that Trump and Musk have put together a strong [组合力度很大] package of reforms, backed by strong determination [决心很强] and an unprecedented level of support from the public. With the added boost from AI, there is a real possibility that America could be saved through radical reforms, [they claim]. Many people believe that, considering Trump’s isolationist strategy, the US could just withdraw into its North American comfort zone, settling into a new role as a regional hegemon, while gradually replenishing its strength [修复综合国力].
However, pessimists argue that the US’s overall power is fundamentally tied up [深深嵌入] in the global system, including the dollar’s status as the world’s dominant currency, its ability to attract top talent from around the world, and its ability to absorb global capital. Therefore, if Trump were to pursue isolationism forcefully and strip the US of its resource-extracting global hegemony [剥离汲取资源], [the pessimists believe that] the country would face a precipitous decline due to its inability to sustain itself [维持而断崖式坠落], potentially even resulting in a Soviet-style implosion [内爆].
There’s a quote from the The Three-Body Problem Trilogy that I really like: “Weakness and ignorance are not barriers to survival, but arrogance is.”
Although the United States appears to be in decline, it remains, by any measure, the world’s leading power. After all, the fact that an unconventional reformer like Trump could emerge suggests that the American system does indeed possess a strong capacity for self-correction. That’s my view anyway.
At the same time, I pay particular attention to the technological forces behind Trump [特朗普背后的技术力量], as they may well bring about new and unexpected changes. I would rather overestimate [the impact of] Trump’s reforms than risk underestimating them.
Many establishment think tanks and media outlets in the US display real arrogance, which comes from assuming that their values are superior [基于价值观的傲慢]. In contrast, I sometimes feel that the perspectives of Trump, Vance and others are more grounded [接地气], and more worth paying attention to.
To read the full article, visit
https://thechinaacademy.org/starting-the-trade-war-the-best-thing-trump-did-to-china/