Since the British publication of the “Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy”, [+11 megabyte pdf file download], the relationships between London and Beijing are continuing on an unevenly instability.
Cui Hongjian (崔洪建) is of the opinion that China is still seen both as a systemic competitor and an economic threat to the UK, though offering a view that “the British government still wishes to maintain a realistic [i.e. pragmatic] approach to its relations with China." (in Chinese).
There are some other selective comments by China-based observers reactions to the UK premiership of Sunak, taking into account to his once call for a “mature and balanced relationship” with Beijing, but then the hostile policy pledges uttered during the Tory leadership contest are not easily forgotten nor unnoticed. Then, there are commentaries in China about potentially positive impact that Sunak might have on the deepening of ties between London and New Delhi which may be translated as geopolitically as not necessarily a positive geostrategic frontier outlook for Beijing.
Here are some excerpts from China-based academics:
Ding Chun (丁纯) – Director of the Centre for European Studies at Fudan University
“He is not a 'hawk' [like Truss]. In my opinion and judging from the current situation, relations with China should be relatively stable during his tenure. He does not appear to be in a position to actually promote cooperation with China at the moment, but deliberately messing up relations with China wouldn’t do him much good [either] and would be of no help in his dealing with the [current] crisis."
“Sunak is probably very aware of the potential for mutual cooperation between China and Britain and of the importance of economic cooperation with China for the development of the United Kingdom as well as Europe."
Qiu Jing (邱静) – Researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
“Saving the economy is the [UK’s] main problem. This is also Sunak's forte … Looking around the UK’s political scene, be it Labour or the Liberal Democrats, there is no [other] party that can come up with better economic policies and no better person who is able to solve difficult economic problems.”
Wang Yanxing (王衍行) Senior Research Fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China.
“What qualities and skills will this new Prime Minister draw on when tackling the current crisis?”
“The first is [his] integrity … Unlike most politicians, Sunak's words are consistent with his actions … The second is [his] humility … He stands in stark contrast to Truss, who, after becoming Prime Minister, acted in a self-righteous manner and ended up ‘lifting up a rock and smashing it on her own feet’ when dealing with a major issue. The third is [his] education … The fourth is [his] experience. Sunak has experience in both politics and business … The fifth is [his] pragmatism … The sixth is [his] care for others.”
“What is encouraging is that Sunak already has convincing qualities and experience, which is half the battle.”
Liu Zongyi (刘宗义) – Secretary-general of the Centre for China-South Asia Cooperation at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS)
“Sunak once argued that the UK should pursue a mature and balanced policy towards China, cooperating where cooperation is needed and competing where competition is needed … However, he has also emphasised the so-called ‘China challenge’ (‘中国挑战’), worrying that China's rise could pose a systemic challenge to the Western world in terms of both security and ideology. So in this respect, he believes that China must be checked and balanced.”
Yin Zhiguang (殷之光) – Professor of International Politics at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs of Fudan University.
“After pressure from the US, the Johnson government's attitude towards China completely changed and the 'use China to replace Europe' rhetoric largely disappeared. Sunak is essentially continuing on this same old trajectory. This is nothing to be surprised about."
A longer piece by Li Guanjie (李冠杰) - who is Researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Global Governance and Area Studies (SAGGAS), Shanghai International Studies University (2014-present) - provides a brief overview of Sino-British relations in 2022 and insights as what to expect in 2023 that was published last month in Fudan University’s yearly “Report on European Policies Towards China”.
Li Guanjie’s overview of UK-China relations (excerpts):
“In 2022, the British government underwent frequent changes but its policy towards China remained as tough as ever [一如既往的强硬]. As a result of the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Downing Street was left with little time to address the so-called ‘China threat’. However, strategically speaking, Britain’s government has been [intent on] driving a wedge between China and Russia so as to prevent deeper cooperation between the two sides. Britain has continued to interfere in China's domestic affairs using double standards, issuing irresponsible statements and engaging in improper actions in matters relating to Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet and Taiwan. Due to poor high-level communication between Beijing and London, people-to-people and cultural exchanges between both countries have been hampered. Downing Street has [also] forcibly intervened in the extremely resilient economic cooperation [between both sides] on national security grounds. This has affected normal cooperation between China and the UK in the areas of trade, investment and science and technology, and has caused discontent among the British population.”
“In addition, the former leader of the Conservative Party, [Iain] Duncan Smith, MI5 Director General [Ken] McCallum and others have been doing their upmost to play up the ‘China threat theory’ [中国威胁论], blaming the UK’s own problems on Chinese interference and using this as a means to defuse Britain’s social crisis and deflect domestic tensions caused by the pandemic and Brexit in recent years. Advocates of the ‘[China] threat theory’ accuse our country of ‘trying to infiltrate and subvert the British political system’, of seeking to influence British parliamentarians through engaging in ‘political meddling activities’ and of trying to change the rules of the game. This is the UK's greatest strategic challenge. The fact is that Britain is building up its armaments, generating confrontation, reshaping the existing international system, turning the trend towards globalisation and international cooperation into a situation of confrontation between ‘us and them’ [敌我对决] and trying to become the leader of the so-called ‘liberal democratic camp’.”
“If the UK's approach to its relations with China were to deteriorate further, this would just make matters worse and the lack of high-level engagement between the UK and China will cause bilateral relations to go into ‘free fall’ [使双边关系’自由落体’] … Britain’s three [recent] prime ministers, Johnson, Truss and Sunak, have not visited China. [Furthermore,] senior Chinese and British officials only communicate with each other on urgent matters by phone.”
“With the British government stirring up trouble, the deepening of investment-related and technological exchanges and cooperation between China and the UK will be hampered [将会受阻]. And although bilateral cooperation between both countries is [still] highly complementary and resilient, economic cooperation may yet take a downward turn [可能会走下坡路].”
“Looking ahead to 2023, it is extremely likely [极有可能] that Sino-British relations will deteriorate further. British Prime Minister Sunak has already announced that China and the UK’s ‘golden age’ is over and could yet change his characterisation of the PRC from ‘competitor’ [竞争对手] to ‘threat’ [威胁]. [Moreover,] the UK is bound to increase its interference in China's internal affairs … Even if the Labour Party were to come to power, this artificially distorted pattern of Sino-British relations would be difficult to improve.”
as translated by Edward Kuperman in Thomas des Garets Geddes © 2023