Preamble
With Iran's accession and the addition of several Arab countries and Belarus to the waiting list, SCO is optimistic about its role in maintaining regional security.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization was founded in 1996 by the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan in order to build mutual trust among Member States, to disarm the border regions and to encourage regional cooperation under the name “Shanghai Five”.
The SCO membership includes Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan besides India. Apart from the member states, two observer countries Belarus and Iran were participating in the SCO Defence Ministers Meeting on 28 April 2023.
The SCO is the world’s largest regional organisation, covering approximately 60% of the area of Eurasia, 40% of the world population, and more than 30% of global GDP. With Iran’s admission to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), its relations with China and Russia will only grow even more intimate.
Even with Beijing’s expanding influence in the region, those Central Asian states are beginning to emerge as regional political actors in their own right, rather than as the objects of clashing great-power interests and ambitions. All five countries in the region, however, are navigating amidst a rising China, an affable Russia, and even with a deepening schism between these two neighbours and the West, they are fully turning their backs on the West to embrace China while hedging their bets with the help of Russia.
Beijing and Moscow, in turn, are treading carefully, intent on accommodating both each other’s interests and those of Central Asian states, too, (Foreign Affairs, 30/06/2023).
India, on the other hand, needs to do some soul-searching because the recent SCO foreign ministers meeting in Delhi witnessed an acrimonious India-Pakistan standoff that vitiated the “Shanghai Spirit,” even as the Central Asian states and Russia and China mutely watched, (M.K. Bhadrakumar)
A comprehensive analysis on India awkward sitting in SCO, her discontent with SCO, and other geopolitical positioning issues pertaining to Indo-Sino relationship are well-presented in this broadcast; especially when India is entrapped in a quasi-alliance with USA, (The Wire, 29/06/2023).
According to MENA expert Ma Xiaolin, senior professor at the Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean Rim (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University (ZISU), Iran’s admission to the SCO can serve as a hedge against the strategic pressure that the US is putting on both China and Russia.
At the same time, it has the potential to introduce the great power rivalry to the Middle East; fuller exploration on Iran's geoeconomics competitiveness can be read in the firesstorms site HERE.
Dr. Pan Guang is Vice Chairman and Professor of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS) Shanghai Center for International Studies, Director of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Studies Center, Dean of the Shanghai Center of Jewish Studies, and Vice President of the Chinese Association of Middle East Studies.
Excerpts from Pan’s interview with Guancha, published on July 6th:
“The idea of China and Russia serving as the twin-engine 双引擎 of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was first proposed at its inception [in 2001], and it still holds.
“Even after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war last year, this idea has remained largely unchanged. Although China is playing a much bigger role than before, seeing as Russia has its hands full 自顾不暇, it is still challenging for China to work around Russia.
“For example, the long-awaited China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, where Russia has historically been less active, is finally making headway. Other instances where China took the initiative are the China-Arab Summit [in December 2022] and the China-Central Asia Summit [in May 2023]. Both were held outside of the SCO framework, and neither invited Russia.
Moscow did not expressly oppose them, and, in fact, spoke highly of the events.
“In actuality, China continues to exercise caution in carrying out these activities so as not to harm relations with other SCO members, particularly Russia.
Additionally, at this time, Russia wants China to take a more active role in order to lessen its own burden. The main concern is whether Russia's domestic situation can remain stable. At least for the moment, the recent Wagner mutiny has subsided, and it is unlikely that the chaos will recur.
“In fact, we can go back to the Samarkand SCO Heads of State Summit in 2022. All of the heads of the member states were present at the meeting, and it was clear to all who took the lead 主角.
”Therefore, I don't think we can currently say that the twin-engine model has changed. However, one could argue that China is taking on a more significant role in it.”
“I disagree with the recent perception among many people that India has fallen into America's orbit”
“The journey of SCO expansion is actually quite fascinating. When it came to India's admission to the SCO, for instance, many people - including myself and some of the senior ambassadors - were opposed. However, once the gavel of the central government fell 拍板, it was a done deal. I still had reservations about India joining the SCO, since I was under the impression it only did so to cause trouble; later, when it did join alongside Pakistan, my views gradually changed.
“When President Hu Jintao met with Indian leaders, he said something to the effect that once India joined the SCO, there would be a new platform to solve China-India relations problems. The word "platform" has inspired me. Take, for instance, the tense situation on the Sino-Indian border, making it very difficult for the defense and foreign ministers of the two countries to meet.
“But through the SCO defense and foreign ministers' meetings, the ministers of the two nations not only met and shook hands but also held talks. Russia has played a significant role in this regard, and a special mechanism known as the China-Russia-India trilateral mechanism has been established. This mechanism has been used to hold high-level meetings between China and India in recent years, such as following the [2017] Doklam standoff and Indian drone incident, as well as the [2020] Galwan Valley clash.
“That is why the SCO is a very good platform, and it is not exclusive. Some problems are difficult to solve bilaterally, and that is where the SCO platform can be used to ease tensions and mediate. For example, the friction between China and India, India and Pakistan, and among Central Asian countries. The first two are mostly about borders, while the latter is about issues like enclaves, hydropower, and energy.
“A future expansion of the SCO could begin with countries that have few conflicts with existing members. Iran, which has only recently joined, is primarily at odds with Israel, but its relations with China, Russia, India, and Central Asia are not bad. The Gulf states could be the next area of focus.
“Indeed, Iran's membership in the SCO has had its ups and downs, and when then-Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visited Shanghai in 2010, he was enraged that the SCO would not accept Iran.
“But the reason was simple at the time: Iran was under UN sanctions. The SCO has a rule that states under UN sanctions are not allowed to join. When the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) came into effect in 2016, the UN lifted its sanctions against Iran. Only later has the US withdrawn from the JCPOA, making Iran subject to unilateral sanctions imposed by the US. In this case, there were no rules or restrictions preventing Iran from joining.
“In a similar vein, sanctions against Russia are not currently in place, despite the UN's condemnation of its military actions (the US-led West and NATO have sanctioned it). So, as with Belarus, there are currently no issues with sanctions, and such countries should be able to join the SCO without too much difficulty.
“In fact, Israel has twice asked to join the SCO, but I fear it will find it difficult to do so now. China, Russia, India, and Central Asian countries have friendly relations with Israel, but now that Iran has joined, it will almost certainly oppose it. Resolving these contradictions will remain a challenge.
“Foreign media recently reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wishes to visit China, hoping that China can assist in normalizing Israel's relationship with Saudi Arabia (though it by no means expects China to assist in resolving the conflict with Iran).
“The most significant aspect of SCO's expansion is the increase in volume. SCO has enormous potential in terms of population, market, area, and overall strength and influence. Second, it introduces new platforms. However, despite the fact that various parties have actively promoted the SCO's economic and trade cooperation, little progress has been made. It is primarily because of fierce competition among the member countries.
“I disagree with the recent perception among many people that India has fallen into America's orbit. Personally, I believe that India has not turned to the US and that it continues to distance itself from Washington on a number of issues.
“India hasn't explicitly stated that it has shifted to one side, at least not as of yet. It has always insisted on having it both ways or, to put it more diplomatically 脚踏两条船, being non-aligned. Even if India participates actively in the Quad, it has no intention of turning it into an alliance, let alone an "Asian mini-NATO."
“The truth of the matter is that India has grown close to the US, Japan, Australia, and other countries for other reasons. The main one is the tension between India and China, and India hopes that such "vertical and horizontal alliances" 合纵连横 would enable it to restrain China.” (Guancha).
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