PREAMBLE
President Joe Biden meeting his counterpart, Xi Jinping, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in San Francisco where the goals are about managing the competition, preventing the downside risk of conflict and ensuring channels of communication are open.
This will also be Xi’s first visit to the US since April 2017. Taiwan, US export controls and tensions in the South China Sea are among some of the topics to be discussed, and other matters are expected to be announced. However, there will be no concluding joint statement or a state dinner.
Here's a summary of the speech made last month by Wu Xinbo (吴心伯) - director of Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies and Centre for American Studies. Wu addressing Xi’s meeting with Biden “extremely symbolic” (极有象征性), but describes the current easing of tensions between China and the US as no more than “détente” (缓和) or a stabilising of relations, rather than an actual “improvement” (改善).
US-CHINA RELATIONS: DÉTENTE OR IMPROVEMENT?
Wu Xinbo (吴心伯)
Source: Guancha.cn (28 October 2023)
I. Recent Trends in US-China Relations
1. High-level exchanges between China and the US have increased.
From US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, and Secretary of commerce, Gina Raimondo, to the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, and a bipartisan delegation of senators all visiting China over the past few months, high-level exchanges between China and the US have increased substantially.
“US engagement with China has extended from the executive to the legislative and from the federal to the state level, demonstrating a trend towards full-scale resumption [全面恢复].”
“In my view, the visit of a US Congressional delegation to China is of great significance: for one thing, it reflects the US Congress's support for the Biden Administration's strengthening of its engagement with China; and, more importantly, it is a signal to US society that, in the context of the US strategic competition with our country, engagement with China is still both necessary and desirable.”
2. US-China dialogue mechanisms have been created or revived.
“Dialogue mechanisms between China and the US are being rebuilt and resumed. This is something that has not occurred since the last years of the Trump administration.”
3. The US business community has been pushing US-China relations in the right direction.
US businesses have been stepping up their pressure on the Biden administration to ease their country’s tech export controls and, more generally, economic relations with China.
Recent visits to Beijing by Bill Gates, Elon Musk and other top US business executives have also been key in encouraging the positive momentum of recent months.
“The US business community has been more active in influencing US-China relations this year, partly because they are very concerned about the direction of US-China relations and partly because, with the US elections approaching, they can use their edge as donors to influence the direction of the Biden administration's policy toward China.”
4. Bilateral tensions have eased
Official rhetoric on both sides has become less shrill. US policymakers have been much more willing to engage in in-depth discussions about both China-related issues and the overall impact of their country’s recent policy towards the PRC. This was “inconceivable” (不可想象的) just a year ago.
5. The potential for a Xi-Biden meeting
If this meeting is held, it would be the first time since 2017 that the leaders of China and the US have met on American soil … This would be extremely symbolic.”
II. The Drivers
“Do China and the United States have a need [利益需求] to improve relations? The answer to this is: Yes, they do."
1. Economic interests
The US has finally realised that a full decoupling from China is neither desirable nor possible and that targeted decoupling will only take place on national security grounds. This was made clear in a speech delivered by US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen in April this year.
China’s economy has been slowing down. Improving relations with Washington should help improve the PRC’s economic recovery, boost market confidence and attract foreign investment into China.
2. Diplomatic interests
The Biden administration’s approach to international affairs is very different from Trump’s tendency towards unilateralism and disengagement from matters that did not directly affect the US’s interests. Biden knows that if he is to preserve America’s global leadership and solve many of the problems currently facing our planet, Washington cannot do without China. The current Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a case in point.
For Beijing, improving relations with Washington is key to alleviating some of the pressures it is currently facing internationally. Not least, because numerous countries tend to adjust their policy towards Beijing dynamically according to the state of US-China ties.
3. People-to-people exchanges:
Science and technology:
The US’s scientific community has been pushing for a strengthening of US-China science and technology cooperation. Unlike a few decades ago, the US now stands to benefit directly from such exchanges.
China’s scientific and technological development is still dependent on international cooperation. This, of course, includes cooperation with the US.
Higher education:
US universities are dependent on the income provided by Chinese students and are keen to strengthen exchanges with Chinese universities.
Over the past 40 years, China has benefited hugely from the US’s tertiary education system. If it is to continue cultivating new talent, such exchanges must continue.
III. Prospects
1. “Détente” (缓和) rather than “improvement” (改善)
“I believe that the primary goal of the Biden administration's current China policy is stability [稳定], rather than the [actual] improvement of its relationship with China. That is to say, as US-China friction continues, major conflicts should be avoided. The United States is already facing enough trouble as it is. Moreover, with the presidential election approaching, Biden wishes to stabilise the US-China relationship. As to whether or not he wants to ‘improve’ US-China ties, I don't think this is something that his policy team is focusing on right now.”
Were the upcoming meeting between the two heads of state to produce “substantive results” (实质性的成果), an improvement in relations would then become more plausible.
The recent easing of US-China relations can also be explained by the US’s desire to see Xi attend the APEC summit so as both to provide credibility to this meeting and to show his domestic audience what Washington is capable of diplomatically.
Before the summit, Biden may have been hoping for a détente in US-China relations. But after the summit, he may no longer have such a political need.” This will therefore be something else to look out for.
2. Main destabilising factor
Two key events could easily derail the current détente:
a. Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) retaining power following the island’s presidential election in January.
b. The US presidential race and the risk that it may encourage candidates, and by extension the Biden administration, to become more hawkish on China.
3. Conclusion
So, my conclusion is: so far, some of the easing that has emerged in Sino-US relations has been more akin to a détente than to an improvement [缓和多于改善]. It remains to be seen whether an improvement on the basis of this détente can be achieved through a meeting between the two heads of state.”
The Author
