PREAMBLE
An exclusive interview with Peking University professor and Russia specialist Professor Feng Yujun (冯玉军) - by
Feb 11, 2025
Originally posted on his WeChat Moments (朋友圈) last week, this short piece has been slightly revised for this newsletter.
The summary is reposted, otherwise to those in seek of reading the Sinification’s FULL TEXT HERE.
Trump has been in office for barely two weeks, yet his governing philosophy already resembles a foul-smelling stew-like mishmash of things: mercantilism in industrial and trade [policies], populism and anarchism in governance, conservatism in social and cultural matters, “gangsterism [江湖主义]” in foreign policy, utilitarianism in his style of action, and a thuggish personal demeanour—all ultimately blending into opportunism in practice.
On the issue of the Russia-Ukraine war, Trump’s team has already laid bare its ignorance, unscrupulousness and shamelessness: not only have they placed the blame for the war on Biden and Zelensky, but they have also sought direct negotiations with Moscow while disregarding Kyiv, have attempted to pressure Ukraine into making concessions to the aggressor, and have even interfered in Ukraine’s internal affairs by demanding an expedited presidential election. Trump's actions have undoubtedly heightened the uncertainty of the war in Ukraine, bringing great and unexpected joy to a Russia already at the end of its tether.
But, having fought bitterly for three years, will Ukraine bow to Trump’s tyranny? Will Europe, which has already felt deeply the repercussions of the crisis, abandon its support for Ukraine? I think not. Trump’s rise to power may prolong the Russia-Ukraine war, inflicting greater losses and suffering upon Ukraine, but it will not change the ultimate outcome—Ukraine's victory in its war of national defence.
Trump’s egocentric and profit-driven behaviour will not make America great again; rather, it may mark the beginning of America's decline on the international stage as its isolationism and hegemony intertwine chaotically. An “unrestrained” world in which every country has its own difficult problems to deal with, individuals only take care of their own affairs, and ambitious strongmen stir restlessly, is bound to descend into greater disorder.
However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Amidst the stormy turbulence, have we not also witnessed Europe taking steps towards strategic autonomy, the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force becoming operational, Middle Eastern terrorist forces being crippled, and Assad being forced into exile?
[Just as] a person’s appearance is shaped by their heart and mind [相由心生], so too is the world around them shaped by their inner thoughts. What matters is not only the changes in the external world but also the beliefs and aspirations within each individual. Whether one chooses to drift with the tide and become an accomplice to the wicked or to hold fast to justice, one’s conscience, reason and kindness — this choice not only determines an individual’s future but also shapes the course of the world.
Feng Yujun (冯玉军)
Key Points
Trump poses one of the greatest challenges to the US constitutional system since its founding.
His return could yield some tangible economic gains for the US, but it will come at the cost of America's international standing as well as increased global instability.
His “success” will partly depend on whether his opponents and partners yield to his pressure tactics or remain patient and engage in a prolonged “dogfight” with him.
Scholars in China are split into two camps:
Those who see him as a decisive conservative leader focused on results and committed to fulfilling his electoral promises;
and those who view him as driven purely by practical interests, arguing that his policies lack strategic direction and often shift unpredictably.
However, both camps portray him as a businessman primarily focused on diplomatic deal-making.
Instead of debating whether Trump’s return is good or bad for China, focus should be placed on redefining the PRC’s core national interests and its global role.
The Trump administration's approach to Ukraine reflects its ignorance and will only exacerbate the country's suffering and losses.
However, Ukraine's ultimate victory in this war is inevitable as Russia is too weak and Moscow too blinkered to sustain it much longer.
If a deal is struck that grants Moscow concessions at Ukraine’s expense, Russia’s “insatiable desire for territorial expansion” is certain to resurface in the future.
Historically, Russia has inflicted the most harm on China precisely when it professed to be its closest friend.
Thus, a US-Russia
détente may not be inherently bad for China, though it is unlikely to happen any time soon.