The Middle East has been in a state of unipolarity since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 when America became the world's sole superpower. But the situation…is changing.
Li Shaoxian (biodata below) told the official newspaper of the Beijing Municipal Party Committee that "Beijing has the potential to become the new starting point for future Palestinian-Israeli relations.”
Excerpts from Li's interview, published June 13, 2023.
A note: between his quotes, there is commentary by the Beijing Daily Group (BDG):
“Li Shaoxian, director of the Chinese-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University, told Chang'an Street Knowledge that Abbas' invitation to visit is a big-picture move and that China is thinking big 中国从大局考虑，大处着眼之举.
[This is a mash-up of Xi quotations and Chinese martial arts novels. The second phrase is from Yanbei Xianren's 1878 book A Tale of Lovers and Heroes: "Think big but start small" 大处着眼，小处着手].
“Li emphasized that the Palestinian problem 巴勒斯坦问题 has always been the core problem 核心问题 of the Middle East. In recent years, in particular, it has been severely marginalized, and the cycle of violence between Israel and Palestine is constantly threatening Middle Eastern peace and stability.
After the new Israeli government came to power, it vigorously pursued a number of policies to squeeze the living space of the Palestinians. Although the Palestinians and Israel have not broken out into a larger-scale conflict, the non-stop friction has made the prospects for peace talks between them increasingly bleak.
“US Secretary of State Blinken paid a visit to Saudi Arabia earlier this month. Some analysts previously predicted that Blinken's visit would put pressure on Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel. The reality is that the Saudis did not comply 照办.
“According to reports, Saudi Foreign Minister Al-Saud stated on the 8th [of June] that normalizing Saudi-Israeli relations would bring significant benefits to the region, but that if the Palestinians do not see a path to peace, any benefits of normalization with Israel would be "limited."
“In light of this, Li Shaoxian believes that China's recent actions demonstrate the country's willingness to play an active role in mediating peace and facilitating talks 劝和促谈 between Israel and Palestine.
"The regional landscape has shifted dramatically in the last six years," he said. And this change is primarily the result of both internal and external forces.
“The US's all-powerful hand was still looming over 一手遮天 the Middle East six years ago. The region has been in a state of unipolarity 单极主导的局面 since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 when America became the world's sole superpower. But this situation, which has persisted for more than 30 years, is changing.
“For one thing, Arab countries such as Iran [sic] and Saudi Arabia have clearly demonstrated in recent years a greater sense of autonomy. For another, China has advocated for the joint development of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), thereby providing more opportunities for regional economic development.
“According to Li Shaoxian, the Quartet, which consists of the United Nations, the United States, Russia, and the European Union, has long served as a mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, but in recent years, this mechanism has existed only in name 形同虚设.
“In January 2020, then-President Trump unveiled his "new peace plan for the Middle East" [Peace to Prosperity], claiming it would be a "win-win" for both Israel and the Palestinians. The truth is that the plan was completely biased in favor of Israel and amounted to a reversal of the "two-state solution," that is, for a Palestinian State to exist side-by-side in lasting peace with Israel. The US repeatedly prevented the Security Council from issuing a statement in 2021 to mediate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
“In sharp contrast to the United States, which has been biased in favor of Israel and has not played a significant role in promoting the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, China has been relentless in its efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict.
“Under the mediation of China, long-time adversaries Iran and Saudi Arabia announced in March in Beijing that they would restore diplomatic relations. At the same time, Zhai Jun, Special Envoy of the Chinese Government on the Middle East, visited Israel and met with the country's foreign minister to discuss the Palestinian issue. He then traveled to Palestine, where his delegation met with Abbas at the presidential palace [the Mukataa in Ramallah].
“[BDG's] Chang' anjie Street Knowledge's WeChat account has reported that this had been Zhai Jun's third visit to Palestine and Israel in two years, and the Palestinian issue has always been the core of the bilateral discussions. The recent improvement in Saudi-Iranian relations has also triggered a "wave of reconciliation" throughout the Middle East.
“According to a recent survey published on the Saudi Arab News’ website after Beijing achieved a diplomatic breakthrough in March, 80% of Palestinian respondents support China's role in the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.
“According to Li Shaoxian, Abbas' visit will focus on two main areas: promoting the peace process and assisting Palestinians in overcoming economic difficulties.
“The Palestinian-Israeli peace talks have been stalled since 2014 due to issues such as Jewish settlements. Li said that it would be a top priority to restart the Palestinian-Israeli peace process and promote negotiations between the two states.
[As China's Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Geng Shuang, stated in his June 2nd speech:]
"Becoming a refugee is not a choice for more than 5 million Palestinians, and it should not be the fate of future generations of Palestinians."
In his remarks, Geng emphasized that the international community must always prioritize the Palestinian issue and advance the two-state solution with greater urgency.
“On the economic and trade front, the China-Palestine Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is also being negotiated. In 2019, China and Palestine began the first round of FTA negotiations, agreeing on the terms and scope of the documents. Both China and the Palestinians believe that signing the FTA will strengthen bilateral economic and trade relations and benefit both countries' businesses and people. According to data, bilateral trade between China and Palestine reached $158 million in 2022, a 23.2% increase year on year [Compare this to $21.08 billion in trade between China and Israel (including Hong Kong), according to the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, or $25.45 billion based on Chinese numbers, a year-on-year increase of 11.6% - They use a different accounting system].
“China and Israel have a Comprehensive Innovation Partnership, and the two countries are also negotiating FTAs. And as a mutual friend of Palestine and Israel, China can have an impact on both sides while remaining impartial, giving it an advantage.”
“According to Li Shaoxian, the historic reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran in Beijing has raised international expectations for China to play an active role in mediating peace, facilitating talks, and addressing the world's most pressing challenges [lit. "hot-spots" 热点]. Beijing has the potential to become the new starting point for future Palestinian-Israeli relations 新起点.” (BDG’s Chang’an Street Knowledge)
Biodata of presenter
Mr. Li is the director of the Chinese-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University. In his previous position, he served as vice president of CICIR, a top think tank in Beijing affiliated with China's Ministry of State Security (MSS) and overseen by the Party's Central Committee.
an excerpt from
Discourse Power as written by Tuvia Gering, a researcher at the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Israel-China Policy Center at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, and a Tikvah Fund’s Krauthammer Fellow.
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