(Illustration by OpenAI’s DALL·E 3)
WESTERN CLIENTS DON’T BUY THE THINGS WE MOST WANT TO SELL, WHILE OUR BROTHERS FROM THE SOUTH DON’T HAVE THE MEANS TO BUY THEM. WHAT SHOULD WE DO? (EXCERPTS)
Di Dongsheng (翟东升). Originally it was
Published by Guancha.cn on 2 January 2025
Translated by Jan Brughmans.
a reposting from
"We must strive to make more friends and help these countries become richer, while making our adversaries poorer and more fragmented."
Key Points
Contemporary international relations are no longer shaped by the ideals of win-win liberal economic theory but are increasingly driven by the cold pragmatism of Realpolitik.
As a result, the share of China’s exports to the US has been declining.
Chinese suppliers are currently grappling with two major challenges: domestic firms offering less favourable terms than their foreign counterparts and increasing pressure to establish factories overseas.
To address this, Beijing should urge leading Chinese SOEs to offer more generous terms to their fellow domestic suppliers, while ensuring that procurement processes remain competitive.
It should also penalise Chinese firms and individuals operating overseas who undermine the overall interests of Chinese businesses and capital abroad. A black- and whitelist system should be introduced.
To ensure that China remains at the helm of manufacturing in East Asia, Beijing should promote the establishment of overseas industrial parks under its firm control.
Without such measures, the hard-earned advantages of China’s manufacturing sector risk being gradually eroded or siphoned off by other countries.
Beijing must also take steps to prevent India from capitalising too much on the relocation of industries out of China.
Geopolitically, Vietnam represents a far smaller threat and should therefore be prioritised by Chinese enterprises.
Efforts should, of course, focus on retaining as much of China’s manufacturing capacity as possible. However, the idea that China’s western regions could become competitive enough to take over the mantle from the country’s coastal industrial belt is a fallacy that must be discarded.
The key to winning China’s “economic war” with the West, reducing reliance on Western markets and making Western countries “poorer and more fragmented” is to promote the Global South’s development.
Beijing should offer short-term liquidity to these countries during economic downturns and more long-term capital to help build up their infrastructure and industries.
The goal is to build a circle of friends aligned with China’s economic and political interests.
These friends should be protected geopolitically, supported during “colour revolutions” and brought together in times of economic crisis and financial need.
To achieve its goals and facilitate the rise of the Global South, Beijing must further leverage its military strength and economic firepower.
Chinese strategists and scholars must abandon conservative, profit-seeking and risk-averse mindsets. They should recognise that:
The primary purpose of international trade and investment is to climb up global value chains, not simply to seek profit;
Technological progress stems from global market demand, not subsidies;
RMB debt expansion is a catalyst for growth and a virtue, not a vice.
The Soviet Union lost its competition with the US due to such flaws and its failure to gain sufficient control over the global economy. Beijing must avoid repeating the same mistakes.
The Author
Name: Di Dongsheng (翟东升)
Year of birth: 1976 (age: 48/49)
Position: Deputy Dean and Professor, School of International Studies, Renmin University of China (RUC) (2017-now); Dean of the Institute of Regional and Country Studies, RUC; Deputy Director and Secretary-General, Centre for Foreign Strategy Research, RUC (2011-now)
Other: Frequent exchanges with officials at China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, International Liaison Department etc.
Research focus: Global political economy of money and finance; US political economy; Chinese foreign policy
Education: BA, MA and PhD Renmin University of China (1994-2004)
Experience abroad (as a visiting scholar or lecturer): Sciences Po Paris, Durham University, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Georgetown University
