PREAMBLE
Jia Qingguo (贾庆国) discusses the prospects of cross-Strait relations, a potential Trump presidency and the relationships of US and China. Jia has been a long-time foreign policy adviser in the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and is the former Dean of Peking University’s School of International Studies.
Highlights of his thoughts: on being “patience” in the Taiwan context insofar as the incoming leadership does not pursue independence; his preference to see Biden re-elected rather than Trump and his belief that there is still scope for alignment of US and Chinese interests on regional conflicts in Ukraine and the DPRK.
The summary is from Source 1: Interview with China Review News published on 03.03.2024, and from
Source 2: Interview with Phoenix published on 19.03.2024
Indeed, on the Prospects for US-China cooperation, Jia Qingguo (贾庆国) offers this assessment:
“In my opinion, China and the United States can cooperate on many issues, including relatively prominent ones such as the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. The war has currently reached a stalemate and a prolonged conflict is detrimental to both Russia and Ukraine. Both sides need to find a way out. China has good relations with Russia and a certain amount of contact with Ukraine. [Our country] can play a role in mediating and promoting peace. Of course, making progress on this issue may also require strengthening communication, cooperation and consultation with the United States. Cooperation between China and the United States to bring about a ceasefire agreement or a temporary solution to the Russia-Ukraine [conflict] will be of great help in both advancing Sino-US relations and resolving a regional problem.”
“There is also the North Korean nuclear issue. The denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula is actually in the interest of both China and the United States, and especially of China. The unresolved nature of this problem is leading to demands from countries like Japan and South Korea to develop their own nuclear weapons or to bring in tactical nuclear weapons from the US. If this were to happen, it would be very detrimental to China. If Beijing and Washington could cooperate on this issue, it would not only help mitigate this problem but would also significantly reduce the US’s distrust towards our country.”
“China's policy towards the North Korean nuclear issue consists effectively of three parts: first, denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula; second, opposition to [any actions that might lead to] war or chaos on the Korean Peninsula; third, advocating for a peaceful resolution to the North Korean nuclear issue. I believe these three approaches do not conflict with the interests of the United States and South Korea. The current challenge lies in determining how much pressure should be put on North Korea. Currently, the United Nations has imposed relatively harsh sanctions on the DPRK. Due to the strained relations between the US and China, cooperation between the two countries on this issue is not as close and effective as it once was. We may now want to restore US-China cooperation with regards to the North Korean problem from the perspective of our own interests. In fact, we all know that if China and the US do not cooperate, this issue won’t be able to be resolved. Previous efforts such as the Six-Party Talks or the 'Trump-Kim Summit' were the result of cooperation between Beijing and Washington. As long the two countries can work together, then Pyongyang will approach this issue more responsibly. Therefore, US-China cooperation is still extremely necessary. But if this cannot take place, then significant problems may arise in the region with regards to nuclear weapons.”
“Additionally, with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, both China and the United States support a two-state solution. This provides a basis for cooperation. However, due to domestic political reasons, Washington finds itself obliged to support Israel's current approach, which goes a little beyond self-defence. In fact, there are many different voices within the United States on this issue. That is why Blinken has made multiple trips to Israel to persuade Netanyahu to change some of his particularly hardline actions that disregard the emergence of a humanitarian crisis. There is therefore also room for cooperation between China and the United States on this issue. China does not wish to see significant harm done to Israeli interests. At the same time, however, it also needs to defend the interests of the Palestinians and the Arabs. Finally, there is no need for me to mention such issues as climate change and fentanyl since we are already in close communication on these.”
Summary
Taiwan’s president-elect Lai Ching-te has his hands tied politically. The impact of his election on cross-Strait relations should be limited. China will continue to promote peaceful (re)unification “for some time to come”.
Trump is “reckless”, has “outdated views” and lacks “basic moral principles”. He has shown that he is not the pragmatic businessman that many in China had hoped for back in 2016.
His re-election would be particularly detrimental to China and could lead to “severe friction and confrontation” between Washington and Beijing. The prospect of his walking away from the US’s One-China Policy is real.
A second Biden presidency would not prevent further tensions between the US and China, but it could help preserve the current trend of stabilising and improving ties.
Beijing should always keep its long-term interests in mind and avoid overreacting to provocations coming from the United States. Confrontation and tit-for-tat responses make little sense at a time when China is still more vulnerable than the US.
There are still many areas in which the US and China can (and must) cooperate. For instance, defusing tensions on the Korean peninsula will only succeed if Beijing and Washington are prepared to join hands.
The Author
Name: Jia Qingguo (贾庆国)
Year of birth: 1956 (age: 67)
Position: Director of Peking University’s Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding; Member of the Standing Committee of the CPPCC’s 14th National Committee
Formerly: Dean of Peking University’s School of International Studies
Research focus: Chinese diplomacy; US-China relations; cross-Strait relations
Education: BA Beijing Foreign Studies University (1979); MA Cornell University (1984); PhD Cornell University (1988)
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