Netanyahu's visit to China will not only strengthen Sino-Israeli relations, but it may also help Israel establish diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia and benefit the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
According to Professor Niu Xinchun, Director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), which is affiliated with the Ministry of State Security (MSS), the shifting regional landscape is "compelling Israel to seek change."
Full translation of Niu’s article, published in the Chinese version of the Global Times on the 4th of July:
“In a meeting with a visiting US congressional delegation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed for the first time that he may visit China in the near future." Netanyahu's visit to China is not novel in and of itself, and if it takes place, it will be his fourth as prime minister.
“The unique context of this visit is one of the major reasons for the widespread interest in this news. It has been six months since Netanyahu was re-elected Prime Minister, and it is customary [for Israeli Prime Ministers] to make their first trip to the United States.
“However, Israel-US relations appear to have some disagreements [lit. "crooked teeth" 龃龉], and a visit to the White House appears to have fallen through. With Netanyahu's sudden announcement to visit China first, it was only inevitable for the international media to focus on this "new trend."
“The US has long exerted significant influence over Israel's domestic, foreign, and security affairs, and a visit to the White House by the new prime minister is a symbolic procedure for gaining US backing. The Biden administration is well aware of this but has purposefully sidestepped Netanyahu, publicly stating that it has no desire to send a letter of invitation.
“To express his indignation 愤怒, Netanyahu previously barred Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant from visiting the US, forcing Gallant to travel to Brussels to meet with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. With the US-China competition intensifying, Netanyahu's sudden announcement to visit China is inevitably interpreted as "dissatisfaction with the United States."
“By all means, this is a highly unusual episode in US-Israeli relations. Other Middle Eastern countries, according to a Jewish scholar, can strike a balance between the US and China, but Israel does not have that luxury because it is too dependent on the US and must unconditionally follow it 一边倒地跟着.
“The US is indeed very important to Israel, and it takes courage 勇气 and wisdom 智慧 for Israel to "challenge" 叫板 it. Israel's GDP per capita is over $50,000, and its ranking in the UN's "most developed countries" is also relatively high. Yet, the US provides $3.8 billion in aid every year, making it the world's largest recipient of American aid [Ukraine has been the largest recipient of US aid since the Russian invasion began by a wide margin].
“Beginning with President Lyndon B. Johnson, US arms sales to the Middle East have historically been based on the idea of maintaining Israel's "qualitative military edge," which refers to Israel maintaining superiority in arms to counterbalance the quantitative advantage of the Arab states. Israel is the only country in the Middle East to receive the F-35, a fifth-generation fighter jet.
“The US and Israel have collaborated to develop and invest in missile defense systems that have allowed Israel to emerge unscathed from successive conflicts in Gaza [Israeli civilians, and even Chinese citizens, have been killed or injured by ~5% of rockets that are not intercepted by the Iron Dome].
“The US is frequently the only country to support Israel in UN Security Council votes on Israel-Palestine, and US vetoes protect Israel from international condemnation. It has paid a high political price for this "special support."
“However, as the Middle Eastern political landscape has changed over the last decade, the schism in the US-Israeli relationship has grown wider, with each side increasingly daring to test the other's limits [lit. "bottom line"].
“In terms of policy, the US seeks to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue through negotiations, whereas Israel opposes any type of nuclear agreement. The US remains committed to the "two-state solution," while Israel moves closer to a "one-state reality." While the US expressly opposes settlement construction, Israel continues to expand settlements.
“Ideologically, US liberals are dissatisfied with Israel's long-standing occupation of Palestinian territories, discrimination against Israeli Arabs, and tendency to reinforce the state's Jewish character, eroding the so-called "shared values" between the two countries.
“Obama publicly accused Israel in 2013, contending that it can be either a democratic state or a Jewish state occupying the West Bank, but it cannot be both at the same time.
“When the US-Israel conflict erupted in 2015, Netanyahu defied diplomatic convention and was invited by the Republican Party to address the US Congress without Obama's invitation, becoming involved in US domestic politics and openly challenging the US bottom line.
“Biden expressed his strong opposition to Netanyahu's judicial reforms at the end of last year. In fact, he intervened in Israeli internal affairs and questioned Israel's bottom line, forcing Netanyahu to emphasize that "Israel is a sovereign state."
“Given the recent changes in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, the news that Netanyahu will visit China is even more significant. And given recent developments that go beyond bilateral ties, Netanyahu's trip to China assumes political importance on a regional and even global scale.
“Saudi Arabia, a key US ally for more than 70 years, began talks with Iran in Beijing in March, and relations between the two countries have since improved thanks to China's mediation.
“On April 6, Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers signed a joint statement in Beijing, formally resuming diplomatic relations between the two countries, sparking a "wave of reconciliation" 和解潮 in the Middle East.
“Clearly, Saudi Arabia's diplomatic strategy shift has influenced Israel. Netanyahu's visit to China will not only strengthen Sino-Israeli relations, but it may also help Israel establish diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia and benefit the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
“In response to questions from the Knesset's [legislature] Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Netanyahu reportedly stated that China's growing influence in the Middle East could be a good thing, obligating the US to pay more attention to the region.
“It is critical to emphasize that recent events in the Middle East should not be viewed as a zero-sum game in the midst of a volatile international environment. Regardless of who mediated them, every effort to promote peace in the Middle East—whether it be the resumption of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, or a potential future establishment of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel — is truly a win-win 双赢 and beneficial to all 多赢.” (Global Times).