Unnamed US officials are quoted in the Wall Street Journal and New York Times, that Israel was behind the drone attack on a military facility in Isfahan, Iran, on the night of January 28, 2023.
Less than 12 hours later, the Iranian Guardian Council announced that the bill for Iran’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) had been handed over to the president for final approval.
Coincidence?
According to Ma Xiaolin - senior professor at the Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean Rim (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University (ZISU) - Iran's admission to the SCO can serve as a hedge against the strategic pressure that the US is putting on both China and Russia.
On the other hand, one may say that it has the potential to introduce the great power rivalry to the Middle East.
Ma Xiaolin’s response on this reservation is that:
“It just so happens that the Iranian Guardian Council approved the bill of accession to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) exactly 11 hours after the [drone attack on Isfahan] incident, demonstrating Iran's increasing need for the SCO.
“Although I believe there is an evident connection in terms of timing, I do not necessarily believe there is one, logically speaking. That’s because Iran's admission to the SCO has been long in the making, and its quest for SCO membership is also an old story. Furthermore, Israel and Iran have been engaged in a shadow war for some time.
“That's why it's a bit of a stretch to connect the two. In any case, Iran's membership in the SCO is extremely beneficial to Iran's international standing, particularly in terms of strengthening Iran's political clout in the Asian hinterland.
“Everyone can see that Iran's influence has grown gradually in recent years as the international situation and regional power dynamics have changed. Iran's diplomatic "look East, not West" strategy has clearly yielded significant results
“For example, it signed a 25-year comprehensive partnership with China in 2020. The Western media hyped this agreement at the time as a significant boost to Iran's status and a strengthening of the close ties between China and Iran, two so-called adversaries and enemies of the US. According to international convention, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
“Of course, the US is not pleased to see China and Iran advancing their relations. It can also be understood as China playing the Iranian card while Iran plays the China card.
“When the US abruptly withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021 after controlling it for 20 years, they left a vacuum in Central Asia. As a major regional player, Iran quickly stepped in to fill some of the void.
“The Taliban regime's improved ties with Iran over the past few years, despite the fact that 20 years ago they were at each other's throats. Iran has even served as a mediator in negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban armed forces.
“That is why, two years after the Afghan government changed, it seems that Iran is pleased to see the Taliban in power. The Taliban are also eager to expand their reach westward and strengthen ties with Iran.
“With Iran's admission to the SCO, its relations with China and Russia - and with the Central Asian region, including the Far East and East Asia, as a whole - will grow even more intimate. Naturally, this change in circumstances 水涨船高 will elevate Iran's standing as a regional power, making it better able to withstand the US blockade and sanctions.
“Naturally, the inclusion of Iran will significantly increase China's and Russia's presence in the Central Asian and Eurasian hinterlands. This is especially true if the SCO is to expand into the Persian Gulf and the Gulf [states].
“It will, in particular, shift the competition's focus to West Asia [i.e., the Middle East]. In some ways, it can also be said that it can serve as a hedge against the strategic pressure that the United States is putting on both China and Russia from two different directions.”
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