There is, according to the Daily Telegraph where Ukraine and the West are facing a devastating defeat, a growing realisation emerging that it would be an inevitable probability, "Zelensky’s army no longer has any chance of a victory”, Seymour Hersh in modern diplomacy, 23/09/2023.
The war cannot be won as the Russian army has that asymmetrical dominance, (RAND 2017; and the military situation Ukraine SitRep, September 2023; antiwar 2023 is worsening). Indeed, Ukraine will emerge from this war maimed, crippled, and much reduced in both territory and population, (Chas Freeman).
Even before financial and military resources were deviated to the conflicted Gaza landscape, American foreign policy has already floundered (Adam Tooze, Why Biden Failed under The Dysfunctional Superpower regime, Robert Gates, Foreign Affairs 29 September 2023).
On 17 June 2023, Putin told the African peace delegation: "We are open to a constructive dialogue with all those who want peace, based on the principles of justice and taking into account the legitimate interests of the different sides."
Secondly, this expressive intention was taken up by the Welt and the state news agency, RIA which published a commentary deploring the failure of the previous peace initiatives.
Thirdly, it seems that according to FAZ, Ukraine still sees no chance for a negotiated peace with Russia. "This peace must be fought for. And Russia must be defeated. Otherwise, there will be no peace," the Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin, Oleksii Makeiev, told the newspapers Rheinische Post and General-Anzeiger.
Then, there is this increasing Europeanisation of the conflict that may well possibly slide into a major war between Russia and NATO, which neither side wants and, in view of the acute threat of nuclear catastrophe in such a case, cannot possibly want.
Finally, it is up to the European states and the European Union - whose global political weight is constantly being reduced in the war and by the war - to focus their efforts towards the restoration of a stable peace on the continent and thus prevent a major European war.
Needless to say, averting this scenario requires the commitment of leading European politicians, namely the French President and the German Chancellor in a joint effort - and in coordination with the US and Turkish Presidents - while there is still time and the "point of no return" has not yet been passed.
What are the issues?
There is a German private initiative put forth as a negotiation proposal by Professor Dr. Peter Brandt, Professor Dr. Hajo Funke, General (ret.) Harald Kujat and Professor Dr. h. c. Horst Teltschik in Ending the war by a negotiated peace, inter alia
I] Positions of the warring parties:
Ukraine:
- Negotiations only after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory or after the liberation of all Russian occupied territories.
Obligation on Russia to bear the costs of reconstruction.
- Condemnation of the Russian leadership responsible for the attack.
- NATO membership after the end of the war.
- Security guarantees by states designated by Ukraine.
Russia:
- Consolidated neutrality of Ukraine – no NATO membership.
- No stationing of American and other NATO troops on Ukrainian territory.
- Recognition of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions as Russian territory.
- Ceilings on Ukrainian armed forces in general and for each armed force in particular.
- Arms control negotiations with the USA/NATO, in particular on verification mechanisms for NATO's Ballistic Missile Defence System/BMDS in Poland and Romania.
Both warring parties have set preconditions for the start of negotiations after Ukraine's withdrawal from the Istanbul agreements, and the Ukrainian president has even issued a decree forbidding negotiations. Both sides have also made demands for the outcome of negotiations that are impossible to fulfill in this way. Therefore, it is essential that all preconditions for the start of negotiations are dropped.
In fact, the Chinese position paper offers a reasonable approach. It calls on the parties to "resume peace talks [...] resumption of negotiations".
The USA has an important role to play in bringing about negotiations and would have to pressure the Ukrainian president to negotiate. In addition, the USA (and NATO) must be prepared to engage in arms control negotiations, including confidence-building military measures.
Phase I – Ceasefire
To start the peace process, the UN Security Council should consider a draft resolution along the following lines and mandate further measure as outlined below:
The UN Security Council:
shall adopt, in accordance with Article 24(1) of the UN Charter, a timetable and schedule for a ceasefire and for negotiations to end the Ukrainian war and restore peace, consistent with the primary responsibility assigned to it by its members for the maintenance of international peace and security,
shall decide on a general and comprehensive ceasefire between the warring parties, Russia and Ukraine, with effect from "Day X". The ceasefire shall be without exception and without limitation or special arrangements, irrespective of the deployment of the opposing armed forces and weapons systems. It shall be binding and implemented in a general and comprehensive manner,
shall entrust a High Commissioner for Peace and Security in Ukraine with the political responsibility for the implementation of the timetable and schedule as well as all measures decided by the UN Security Council in this context,
shall decide on the deployment of a UN peacekeeping force16 in accordance with Chapter VII of the UN Charter, tasked with observing and enforcing the ceasefire and the security and military measures agreed between the parties to the conflict.
The parties to the conflict shall cease all hostilities on the date determined by the UN Security Council ("Day X").
No more weapons and ammunition shall be supplied to Ukraine from that date. Russia shall also cease supplying arms and ammunition to its forces in the territories occupied since 24 February 2022 and Crimea.
All irregular foreign forces, military advisors and intelligence personnel of both warring parties shall be withdrawn from Ukrainian territory by Day X +10.
Phase II – Peace Negotiations
Peace negotiations shall begin on Day X +15 under the chairmanship of the UN Secretary-General and/or the UN High Commissioner for Peace and Security in Ukraine at UN Headquarters in Geneva.
Both parties to the conflict shall reaffirm their determination to conduct the negotiations with the firm intention of ending the war and seeking a peaceful and lasting settlement of all issues in dispute. They shall take account of Russia's letters to the United States and NATO of 17 December 2021, insofar as they are relevant to the bilateral negotiations, and Ukraine's position paper for the negotiations of 29 March 2022, and build on the results of the Istanbul negotiations.
Elements of a negotiated settlement:
a) The parties to the conflict
- would not consider each other as adversaries in the future and would undertake to return to the principles of equal and indivisible security,
- would undertake to renounce the threat and use of force,
- would undertake not to take any preparatory measures to wage war against the other party,
- would undertake to show transparency in their military planning and exercises and greater predictability in their military and political actions,
- would accept the deployment of a UN peacekeeping force on Ukrainian territory in a 50 km wide zone from the Russian border, including the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson within their administrative boundaries,
- would undertake to resolve all disputes without the use of force through the mediation of the United Nations High Comissioner or if necessary, by the guarantor states. The right of Ukraine to individual and collective self-defense under article 51 of the UN Charter would not be affected.
b) Russia
- would withdraw its armed forces from the territory of Ukraine to the borders of 23 February 2022,
- would withdraw its armed forces on its own territory to no less than 50 km from the Ukrainian border, if they have been deployed to this zone since 24 February 2022.
c) Ukraine
- would withdraw its armed forces from a zone no less than 50 km from the Russian border, including the regions of Luhansk Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson,
- would declare as permanent its status as a neutral state and would not join any military alliance, including the North Atlantic Alliance. Ukraine's sovereignty, territorial integrity and state independence would be guaranteed by corresponding pledges of guarantor powers.17 The guarantees would not apply to Crimea, and the regions of Luhansk Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson within their former administrative borders,
- would renounce the development, possession, and deployment of nuclear weapons on its territory,
- would not allow the permanent or temporary deployment of the armed forces of a foreign power or its military infrastructure on its territory,
- would not permit exercises and manoeuvres by foreign armed forces on its territory,
- would implement the agreed ceilings18 on Ukrainian armed forces within two years.
d) The problems related to Crimea and Sevastopol would be negotiated bilaterally through diplomatic channels within 15 years and resolved by renouncing military force.
e) The future status of the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions would be mutually agreed in the negotiations. Russia would allow refugees to return. If the negotiating partners failed to reach an agreement on this issue, the United Nations High Commissioner for Peace and Security in Ukraine would hold a referendum within two years of the peace treaty coming into force, in which the population would decide on the future status. Ukrainian citizens who were permanent residents of these regions on 31.12.2021 would be eligible to participate. Russia and Ukraine would undertake to recognize the results of the referendum and implement them in their respective national legislations by the end of the year in which the referendum took place. For the population of regions that decided to remain within Ukraine, the Ukrainian government would incorporate into its constitution minority rights according to European standards and implement them by the end of the year in which the referendum took place (in accordance with the Minsk II Agreement).
f) Guarantor states, which are members of the European Union, would promote Ukraine’s membership by supporting rule of law and democratic reforms.
g) The reconstruction of the Ukrainian economy and infrastructure would be promoted through an international donor conference.
h) Both Parties would participate in and constructively support a Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe in the CSCE format with the aim of establishing a European security and peace order. The conference would take place within one year of the entry into force of the Peace Treaty.
i) The Treaty would enter into force as soon as both Parties and five guarantor states had signed the Treaty and, to the extent necessary, the parliaments of these states had approved it, and
j) Ukraine had enshrined its status as a neutral, independent and non-aligned state (without the goal of NATO membership) by amending its constitution.
k) Any delays would not justify either breaking the ceasefire or withdrawing from the agreements reached so far.
Phase III – A European Security and Peace Order
In the long term, only a European security and peace order can guarantee Ukraine's security and freedom, in which Ukraine and Russia have their place. This European security architecture would ensure that Ukraine's geostrategic position would no longer play a key role in the geopolitical rivalry between the United States and Russia. The way to achieve this is through a conference in the CSCE format that builds on the great progress made in the "Charter of Paris" and develops it further, taking into account the current security and strategic framework.
