THE AUTHOR
Name: Xue Li (薛力)
Position: Researcher at the Department for International Strategy Research, Institute of World Economics and Politics (IWEP); Professor, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
Previously: Director of the IWEP’s Department for International Strategy Research (2016-2020).
Research focus: China's international strategy; Chinese diplomacy; energy politics; the PRC’s maritime policy; and the BRI.
Education: BA Fujian Medical University (1987); MA Tsinghua University (2004); PhD CASS (2007)
Experience abroad: Unknown
Summary
Xue worries about what he calls the West’s “civilisational rivalry” with China. He anticipates that the western world will increase its targeting of countries which do not align with its values and interests, and predicts that local conflicts and proxy wars are set to rise. This will affect the global energy landscape, he argues.
Pursuing “energy independence” does not mean aiming for “energy self-sufficiency”. Rather, it implies achieving a “diversified, stable and reasonably priced” supply of energy so as to ensure China’s “sustained economic development”.
Increasing significantly the proportion of natural gas in China’s energy mix is the only way for Beijing to achieve its “dual carbon goal”.
China’s share of natural gas imports from Russia should be limited to one-third. Imports from Turkmenistan, Qatar and Iran in particular should be significantly increased. LNG imports from Australia and the US should also be expanded somewhat.
Oil imports from the Middle East should no longer rise, but should even be reduced slightly.
No country should exceed 20% of China’s total oil imports. The share of imports from the US and its allies should be kept under 5%.
Faced with increased Western antagonism, “maintaining sufficient coal production capacity, limiting coal consumption and using clean coal and gas whenever possible” should become major guiding principles for China when readjusting its coal consumption.
The share of nuclear power in China's electricity production should be increased from around 6% to 10-20%.
Xue naturally emphasises the need for China to increase the share of clean energy in its energy mix, but also highlights the constraints that the main types of renewable energy currently present.
Original text - in chinese; as translated - is archived HERE.