a reposting from
“It is necessary to establish a regional maritime security forum led by China and Russia, modelled after the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation."
Thomas des Garets Geddes, Paddy Stephens, and Patrik Andersson
Dec 1 2024
Today’s edition opens with an introduction by Patrik Andersson, an analyst at the Swedish National China Centre, Swedish Institute of International Affairs. Patrik specialises in China's involvement in the Arctic. His latest report, "Sino-Russian cooperation in the Arctic: Implications for Nordic countries and recommended policy responses", is available here. – Thomas
Chinese leaders frequently discuss the world undergoing “great changes unseen in a century”. Similarly, Yang Zhen and Ren Yanyan argue in the following article that the international maritime order is experiencing structural shifts, with governance norms in the “global commons” eroding. They see this as an opportunity for China and Russia to enhance maritime cooperation, counterbalancing what they describe as US maritime hegemony. The authors advocate for a fairer global maritime governance system, exemplified by the concept of a “maritime community with a shared future”, which is the maritime component of Xi Jinping’s framework of a “human community with a shared future”.
The authors highlight how developments since the “outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict” have brought China and Russia closer, paving the way for greater collaboration and removing obstacles to maritime cooperation. Notably, they avoid addressing Russia’s role in undermining global norms or contributing to the breakdown of the old world order. There is no criticism of Russia’s actions, even though the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is a key factor in the geopolitical shifts they describe. This is in line with the mainstream Chinese position on the war in Ukraine.
While the article paints an optimistic picture of the Sino-Russian partnership, it notably omits discussion of the challenges involved in deepening this cooperation. For instance, the authors suggest that the rift between Russia and the West post-invasion has reduced obstacles to Sino-Russian collaboration on Arctic affairs. However, they overlook the risks for China, such as increased vulnerability to Western sanctions if it becomes overly reliant on Russia in the Arctic. China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion has strained already tense relations with Nordic Arctic states, further limiting its ability to cooperate with them. Addressing these challenges would have added nuance to their analysis.
Interestingly, the authors propose creating “a regional maritime security forum led by China and Russia”. This idea aligns with critiques from some Chinese scholars of the Arctic governance framework, with the Arctic Council at the centre, which they see as excluding non-Arctic states and neglecting security issues. Some Western analysts have expressed concerns that if the Arctic Council fails to survive its current crisis, China and Russia might attempt to establish alternative governance bodies. While the proposed forum reflects these aspirations, its practicality and feasibility remain questionable.
Patrik Andersson
CHINA-RUSSIA MARITIME COOPERATION IN THE CONTEXT OF MAJOR CHANGES IN THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER (EXCERPTS)
Yang Zhen (杨震) and Ren Yanyan (任燕燕)
Published in the May-June 2024 No. 3 edition of Northeast Asia Forum (东北亚论坛)
Translated by Paddy Stephens
Key points
The United States poses a serious threat to the maritime security of China and Russia. In response, they are bolstering their maritime cooperation.
The two countries must cooperate for three reasons: mitigating security risks, advancing economic development and improving global maritime governance.
The Arctic region is poised to play an increasingly important role in their joint maritime endeavours.
If Sino-Russian projects in the Arctic maintain a focus on profitability, Moscow could dedicate more resources to the region, bolstering its efforts to counter NATO’s aggressive stance.
As an observer member in the Arctic Council, China lacks voting rights, limiting its influence in the region. China-Russia maritime cooperation strengthens its position.
A regional maritime security forum, spearheaded by China and Russia, should be established. Modelled on the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, it could gradually evolve into a more global initiative.
Sino-Russian maritime cooperation is defined by firm opposition to maritime hegemony and a shared ambition to establish a new international maritime order.
Going forward, technological cooperation is expected to intensify in key areas such as missile technology, unmanned systems and AI training data.
China’s industrial might could also be leveraged to equip Russia with a modern, ocean-going fleet.
Confronted with an increasingly assertive Japan in the Indo-Pacific, Beijing and Moscow should coordinate their efforts to confront Tokyo when their respective interests are at stake
The Authors
Author: Yang Zhen (杨震)
Date of Birth: 1977 (age: 46/47)
Position: Deputy Director, Northeast Asia Research Centre, Shanghai University of Political Science and Law; Distinguished Associate Research Fellow, South Asia Research Centre, Fudan University
Previously: Colonel, People's Liberation Army (2005-2019)
Research focus: Maritime Security; Sea power theory; Military equipment and strategy
Education: MA PLA Institute of International Relations (2002-2005); PhD Fudan University (2008-2012)
Experience abroad: N/A
Co-author: Ren Yanyan (任燕燕)
Position: Assistant Researcher, Shanghai University of Political Science and Law
