There are much discourses among China’s intellectual elites as on how to respond to the growing political divide between China and the West marked by partial decoupling, security alliances, and the risk of sanctions.
There has been calling on country to build a “new type of international system” in response to China’s perceived alienation from today’s US-led international order. There are those who want their country to revise their current international strategy by refocusing their diplomatic efforts away from the West towards the Global South (Russia included). This genre also wants their government’s engagement abroad to be less growth-driven and more focused on political and security objectives. The end result being the emergence of a parallel system free from Western interference.
In previous postings, presentations have had ranged from Da Wei (达巍) stressing the importance of preserving if not strengthening ties with the West and Shen Wei (沈伟) arguing in favour of reforming the WTO and building up a network of free trade agreements to Ye Hailin (叶海林) emphasising the need for China to demonstrate its military might to demobilise US allies and Lu Feng (路风) calling for self-reliance and greater assertiveness in the field of tech.
Encapsulated herein is a brief of these varied arguments.
SUMMARY
US-led globalisation and capitalism drove NATO's eastward expansion. This, in turn, has been the “main reason” behind Russia’s offensive in Ukraine.
Western-style globalisation is coming to an end.
China’s rise is threatening the current US-led international order whose rules have been designed to benefit the West.
The conflict in Ukraine has laid bare the West's intent to unite in order to suppress non-Western countries – China and Russia in particular. The US has made clear that “it will not rest until China is defeated”.
The West’s decoupling from China is set to accelerate and will continue “for a long time to come”. China’s being hit in its turn by Russia-like sanctions remains a possibility.
Beijing should therefore “create a new international environment conducive to safeguarding China's national security and long-term development.” It should do so by reassessing “China's past tradition of multilateralism” and by shifting its diplomatic focus away from the West towards the Global South (Russia included).
This, however, does not mean completely shunning the West. Engaging and even developing cooperative relations with western countries should continue whenever possible.
China should categorise its diplomatic relations with the world into “three rings” and prioritise these as follows: 1. East Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East; 2. Other developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America; 3. Europe, the US and other industrialised countries.
To foster this change, China should:
Encourage the emergence of a new international payment system, promote the internationalisation of the RMB and provide support for currencies other than the USD (such as the euro).
Upgrade the New Development Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
Establish a common energy market and payment network with other Asian countries (incl. the Middle East).
Strengthen both financial and security cooperation with other Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) members and Iran.
Deepen East Asia’s (as understood in its broadest sense) economic integration.
De-emphasise growth-driven strategies in favour of political and security-related ones. This will help reduce Western interference in the region.
Use the BRICS as a catalyst for South-South cooperation.
10. “The emergence of a new world-system and the deepening of South-South cooperation will allow China to enter the forefront of the world economy and politics.”