US secretary of state Antony Blinken visited China where he met with president Xi Jinping, foreign minister Qin Gang and China’s top diplomat Wang Yi and other officials.
Highlights herein are Chinese international relations scholars’ comments on this event.
[Those expressions were made before Biden called Xi Jinping a “dictator”, a day after Blinken had met with Xi. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated yesterday that Biden’s comments “seriously violate basic facts, diplomatic protocols and China’s political dignity”.]
Name: Yan Xuetong (阎学通)
Year of birth: 1952 (age: 70)
Position: Director of the Institute of International Relations, Tsinghua University.
Previously: Researcher at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) 1982-1984 and 1992-2000.
Research focus: International relations
Education: BA Heilongjiang University (1982); MA University of International Relations (1986); PhD University of California, Berkeley (1992)
Source: Phoenix (20.06.2023)
“As long as the US maintains its ‘small yard, high fence’ policy, the relationship between China and the US will essentially be characterised by ‘more conflict than cooperation’ [冲突大于合作].”
Yan commenting on Qin Gang’s statement that China is committed to building a "stable, predictable, and constructive" relationship with the United States and what this implies for US-China ties:
“I believe that Foreign Minister Qin Gang’s comment is very much in line with the objective facts. The contradictions [矛盾] between the US and China exist objectively. Moreover, it is now almost impossible for the US to abandon [its] ‘small yard, high fence’ strategy. This was even written into its National [Security] Strategy [Note: Yan is probably referring to remarks made by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan]. Therefore, as long as the US maintains its ‘small yard, high fence’ policy, the relationship between China and the US will essentially be characterised by ‘more conflict than cooperation’ [冲突大于合作].”
”So how high can your expectations be? You can have very high expectations, but you will not be able to meet them. The expectation that Foreign Minister Qin Gang put forward is the need for stability. That is to say, the two of us may do some things that the other side is not willing to accept, but I know the boundaries within which you will be doing this and it will not exceed what I am expecting.”
“Foreign Minister Qin Gang’s statement means that the policies of both China and the United States may be unacceptable to and perceived negatively by the other party, but there [must] be a limit to such a policy … It should not exceed what the other country is expecting. If you can do that, then you have stability.”
“So, under the current state of affairs, China and the US actually [still] have a lot of work to do. We have made one another's expectations clear and we both know where the other side’s bottom line lies. This is particularly necessary right now.”
Name: Zhu Feng (朱锋)
Year of birth: 1964 (age: 59)
Position: Director of the School of International Studies, Nanjing University
Previously: Professor at Peking University’s School of International Studies (1991-2013)
Research focus: International relations
Education: BA-PhD Peking University (1981-1991)
Source: Phoenix (20.06.2023)
“Based on the official statements made by both sides, I think Blinken's visit has been, generally speaking, very positive … [However,] it is unrealistic to expect any substantial improvement in Sino-US relations in the short term.”
A summary of Zhu’s views:
Zhu: “I believe the choice of words has been more pragmatic and positive [this time].”
Unlike recent encounters between US and Chinese officials, there has been no “war of words” (唇枪舌剑). On the contrary officials statements made by both sides have been largely in line with one another, emphasising the reopening of channels of communication, reducing the risk of miscalculation, managing differences and finding new spaces for cooperation.
Maintaining open channels of communication and equality in US-China exchanges “is where the real significance of Blinken's visit to China will be able to be evaluated and measured”.
Washington must stop its tendency to talk to China only when it is in its interest to and not talking when it isn’t. China’s interests also need to be taken into account.
Zhu: “It is unrealistic to expect any substantial improvement in Sino-US relations in the short term.”
Beijing’s respectful, peaceful and unwavering approach to the US stands in sharp contrast with Washington’s containment policy towards China. This is another area in which both countries are competing for international support and influence.
Zhu: “On the whole, there is no doubt that Sino-American relations have already fallen into the Thucydides trap.” If Washington were to try to use its “hegemonic powers” to “cripple China” (打残中国), “then China would have no choice but to counterattack in a comprehensive manner [全面反击].”
The next ten years will be key to determining the outcome of this US-China great power competition. The US’s approach towards China is unlikely to change significantly until then.
Name: Wu Xinbo (吴心伯)
Year of birth: 1966 (age: 56/57)
Position: Director of the Institute of International Studies and director of the Center for American Studies, Fudan University (Wu has been working there since 1992).
Other: Advisory role within China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Research focus: China's foreign and security policies, US-China relations and international relations in the Asia-Pacific.
Education: BA-PhD Fudan University (1986-1992);
Source: Beijing Daily (20.06.2023)
“Blinken's visit to China has been positive, but no breakthroughs were achieved.”
Wu’s comments in a nutshell:
Blinken's visit will allow for an increase in high-level exchanges between both countries in such fields as trade, transport, culture and the environment. New channels of communication may also be opened.
However, if old issues are left unresolved and cooperation is not enhanced, relations are unlikely to get back on the right track.
Qin Gang’s emphasis on building a "predictable" relationship with the US highlights the recent volatility of US politics and the harmful effect this has had on Washington’s handling of US-China relations.
Taiwan remains Beijing’s main concern. Washington’s high-level engagement with Taipei and its increasingly close military ties with the ROC risk causing great harm to US-China ties.
There will be two key periods for US-China relations in the coming months:
1. From now until the APEC summit in San Francisco in November: there will be a small window of opportunity to improve relations with Washington, with the US keen to encourage Xi to attend this summit.
2. Thereafter, until America’s presidential election takes place in November 2024, politicians in the US are likely to become more hawkish on China in order to gain votes. This is set to have a negative impact on US-China ties.
Extracted from Sinification with gratitude.
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