PREAMBLE
It is the the polarisation of US politics and American society which is the main cause behind the worsening of US-China ties. This has led to increasing hostility against China on both sides of America’s political spectrum.
Dai Wei is of the opinion that neo-liberal Clintonism has now been replaced with more conservative approaches to America’s engagement with the world.
Coupled into the differences in ideologies, political systems and civilisations, besides the imbalances in economic development and population growth have given rise to global populism and nationalism that lead to a general trend towards “de-globalisation” and “pan-securitisation”.
“The ‘Three Americas’ Controversy and the Future of US-China Relations – ‘America vs. America’” by Da Wei
(Excerpts translated by an ATA-certified linguist)
“‘Both ‘Sullivanism's America’ and ‘Trumpism’s America’ reject the neoliberal concepts that were once widely popular in the United States and throughout the world. With unresolved issues such as the hollowing out of American manufacturing and stark divisions among social classes, hardly anyone in the United States is advocating a return to the past. ‘Clintonism's America’, if not entirely gone, is unlikely to return any time soon. Based on this assessment, it is clear that the US-China relationship will not return to the stage of mutual dependence and shared [economic] development which defined the two decades of the post-Cold War period.”
“Both ‘Sullivanism's America’ and ‘Trumpism’s America’ recognise the same ‘American illness’ [‘美国病症’], but they have very different views on the morality and rationality of decision-making between elites and grassroots in public policy, the degree of cooperation between the United Sates and its Western allies and the degree to which the United States should decouple from China. Thus, the remedies they offer [for this illness] are completely different.”
“On the one hand, from the perspective of these ‘two Americas’, China is seen as part of the problem. US-China relations will [therefore] remain contentious for a long time, [regardless of who comes to power in 2025]. On the other hand, these ‘two Americas’ will each bring different issues and challenges to the US-China relationship. In an America dominated by Trumpism, it will be difficult to maintain the current stability of this relationship and clashes between the two nations may become more intense. Furthermore, due to the fickle and often difficult-to-implement policies of the Trump administration, US-China ties will face greater uncertainty and variability. An America dominated by Sullivanism may seem more predictable, but Sullivan’s definition of ‘areas that are fundamental to economic growth and have strategic significance to national security’ is vague and susceptible to frequent changes by American elites and government officials. Therefore, even if the Democratic Party continues to govern, managing and stabilising US-China relations in the long term will be difficult. Moreover, ‘Sullivanism's America’ and ‘Trumpism's America’ fiercely criticise one another, causing a high degree of polarisation among both political parties and the general public on many issues.”
“Thus, for the foreseeable future, neither political party will be able to foster a national or global consensus similar to the kind created during ‘America’s Clintonism’ era. As long as ‘Sullivanism's America’ and ‘Trumpism's America’ continue to oppose one another, the US’s strategy towards China will remain uncertain and US-China relations will continue to suffer.”
The Author
Name: Da Wei (达巍)
Year of birth: N/A
Position: Director of Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy (CISS), director of the department of International Politics and assistant dean of the department of International Relations
Formerly: Analyst at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) from 1995 to 2017; Director of CICIR’s Institute of American Studies (2013-2017)
Research focus: US-China relations; US domestic politics; US foreign and security-related policies
Education: BA-MA University of International Relations; PhD CICIR
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