Ambassador Liu Baolai summarizes the region's developments, 2023
Liu is a former vice president of the Chinese People's Institute of Foreign Affairs (CPIFA), a front organization for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
He is also a senior researcher at the China Foundation for International Studies (CFIS) and a former PRC ambassador to the UAE and Jordan.
Excerpts from Liu's article, published in the Shanghai International Studies University's (SISU) Middle East Studies Institute (MESI) portal on July 11th, 2023:
“The [Chinese-mediated] reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran has greatly boosted the positive energy of regional peace. Significant progress has been made...it has spawned a new "wave of reconciliation" in the region.
“Now Iran wants to form a Gulf naval alliance...Analysts noted that, regardless of whether Iran's proposal to jointly build a naval alliance becomes a reality, it reflects the increasingly obvious geopolitical situation in the Middle East: First, it shows that regional countries have a strong sense of national unity, and their desire for self-improvement is growing, as is their conviction that their future and destiny must be firmly held in their own hands. Second, America’s supposed role as a "security guarantor" is being viewed with growing skepticism by Middle Eastern states, and its regional influence is waning.
“Return of Syria to the Arab League - A humiliating defeat for the US...The Arab League’s decision was a ringing slap in the face for Biden 一记响亮的耳光.
“Palestine is currently in a difficult situation, marked by both internal and external challenges. Internally, although the conflict between Fatah and Hamas has eased somewhat, there are significant differences in their respective approaches to Israel, and they are unable to reach an agreement. With so many dissenting voices, it is difficult to unite Palestinians and speak with a single voice against Israel.
“As for Israel, the establishment of the most far-right government in its history, with its hardline stance toward Palestinians, opposing them at every turn, has resulted in the conflict escalating. The resumption of peace talks is now even less likely.
“In terms of the US, while the Biden administration has expressed its support for a two-state solution to the Palestinian issue, it remains biased in favor of Israel and has taken no practical action, which frustrates the Palestinians.
“The ongoing implementation of the Abraham Accords and normalization of relations with Israel have weakened the Arab countries' ability to band together against Israel.
“Furthermore, the international community's focus on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as well as the energy and food supply crises, has reduced the number of people discussing the Palestinian issue, further marginalizing it.
“The US's ability to control regional affairs is eroding, but it will not abandon the Middle East - With the US's strategic withdrawal from the Middle East, as well as its reduced investment and policy blunders, the region has entered a ‘post-American era.’
“This is especially true in the case of the Saudi-Iranian detente and subsequent "wave of reconciliation," as well as Syria's return to the Arab League, all of which have left the US with mixed feelings and a sense of loss 有失落之感.
“China's regional influence has clearly increased.”
extracted from MESI