PREAMBLE
April 20, 2024 the US House of Representatives passed a bill to provide Ukraine with another $61 billion in aid.
OUTCOME
We shall say these amounts will make no difference to the outcome of the war on the ground as most of the $61 million military hardware funded has already been produced and much of it already shipped. Indeed, likely there could be no more than $10 billion in additional new weapons and equipment from this latest $61 billion passed by Congress.
An additional $11.3 billion to finance current Pentagon operations in Ukraine looks suspiciously like payments for US advisors, mercenaries, special ops, and US forces operating equipment like radars, advanced Patriot missile systems, etc. on the ground,(globalresearch).
SECOND BILL
A second bill was also passed by Congress but had not gained much attention in the mainstream media. That amount would potentially provide up to $300 billion for Ukraine from USA and its NATO allies where reportedly $260 of the $300 billion resides in Eurozone banks.
Biden may want to ‘buy time’ as once former German Chancellor Merkel’s admission that the Western sponsored Minsk Accords were really designed to buy time for Ukraine to build up its military power, but that hand’s been played twice already (The Minsk Accords and The Ukraine Peace Talk) - and the West is being told by Russia this time that the latter is uninterested in buying anything from the West because its ‘money’ no longer has any value.
SANCTIONS
The latest sanction in the form of the US and G7 transfer of the $300 billion in seized Russian assets in western banks will almost for certain have a similar effect on Russia’s economy. Namely, distributing the $300 billion will result in Russian government seizure of at least an equivalent of European companies’ assets still in Russia. With that action, Russia will be benefiting her national companies which would be followed by more private investment.
Heads of US and other central banks, CEOs of large commercial banks, and even mainstream economists like Shiller at Yale have continually warned publicly that transferring the assets will seriously undermine faith in the US dollar system which is the lynchpin of the US global economic empire.
GLOBAL SOUTH
The countries of emerging and developing economies are considering some alternative currency arrangement as well as an alternative international payments system to replace the US SWIFT system (by which the USA via its banks can see who is violating its sanctions). Another likely process shall be to replace the US-run IMF in order to ensure currency stability and an expansion of China’s Belt & Road as an alternative to the US-run World Bank.
BLOWBACK
On a long perspective, consequence of the $300 billion transfer and the exiting of the Global South from the US empire will only witness the decline of the US dollar in global transactions and as a reserve currency. This will definitely set in motion a series of events that in turn undermine the US domestic economy. As an instance, there shall be a lesser demand for the U.S. dollar which will result in a fall in the dollar’s value. This would in herald less recycling of dollars back to the US, resulting in less purchases of US Treasuries from the Federal Reserve, which in turn will require The Fed to raise long term interest rates for years to come in order to cover rising US budget deficits. All this will ensue to an intensifying fiscal crisis in the United States as a rogue state rapidly deteriorating further as even IMF WARNS U.S. CONGRESS on her fiscal mismanagement, expanding defence expenditures and a national debt of US$34 Trillion.
EMPIRE ENDING
As the U.S. doubles down on Ukraine, it will probably demand another offensive which will of course fail. What this hegemonic rogue really wants is for Europe to fight Russia while keeping itself out of the mess. The hegemon pretends that its capabilities are limitless when in fact as they are really and obviously not.
Indeed, Éric Denécé, director of the French Centre for Intelligence Studies already has highlighted that the US is slowly abandoning Ukraine so that it will inevitably become exclusively an European problem.
Meanwhile, in the real world, the defensive line (FOX) of the Ukrainian army is in the process of breaking down (msn), whilst the continuing - and perpetuating -Europe’s hinterland cross-border war is improvishing the Ukrainians, and concurrently, demising American capital as well,(read: STORM, Capital imperfection socialism efficiency economic model; firestorms, de-dollarization and BRICS currency; csloh, US war machine.
Publications posted during the week:
1] Legacy of Violence - a history of British Empire (book review)
2] Conflicts in EU-CHINA relations - Jian Junbo (简军波)
3] The Reshaping of China’s Ideology - implications on international studies, Wang Jisi (王缉思)
4] Hindutva Goes Global, Reactionary International
5] China's overcapacity issue - Collective on Geoeconomics
6] New International Economic Order, Progressive International
7] MOMENTUM #196
8] FRIDAY FILES 26th April 2024
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