“The risks for a wider war and for the region going back into full-scale war are very, very high,” said Linda Robinson, a senior fellow for foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations.
It comes at a time when the United Arab Emirates has warned the Assad regime in Syria not to intervene in the Hamas-Israel war or to allow attacks on Israel from Syrian soil.
Why it matters:
Several countries, including the U.S., are highly concerned that the war could spill over to Lebanon or Syria and escalate to a regional conflict, Axios.
The US Armed Forces are preparing to defend its MENA (Middle East and North Africa) assets and her geopolitical positioning, besides reinforcing military assistance to its vassal state Israel by defending the latter's venerable flanks from Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iran.
Indeed, Israel is holding off Gaza-cleansing (mondoweiss; see also the palestinian genocide, thegrayzone), until U.S. bolsters defenses across Middle East, and awaiting the full stockpile deliverance of Iron Dome system shipment from the US, according to Haaretz.
In fact, the Israeli think tank, the ‘Misgav Institute for National Security & Zionist Strategy’ published a position paper on October 17, in which they outlined their proposed ethnic cleansing plan, declaring that “there is at the moment a unique and rare opportunity to evacuate the whole Gaza Strip in coordination with the Egyptian government.”
Meanwhile, the imperial US forces had started retaliation by degrading strikes at Iran-linked sites in Syria, (military times); and “the U.S. won’t hesitate to take additional action to protect its forces”, according to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (ibid).
Many a military strategist in Washington might have welcomed the pause, thus allowing the US more time to send air defences, additional personnel, two aircraft carriers and battleships to the region to deter Tehran and other resistance actors as tensions escalate across the region, however, these recalcitrant strategic thinkers did not - never - talk about a ceasefire (FAIR); HuffPost reported on October 13 that an internal State Department memo instructed staff not to use the words “de-escalation” “ceasefire”, “end to bloodshed”and “restoring calm” in press materials on the Middle East. The United States is not even trying to dictate limits - the red line - for Israel, the White House had said.
Whereas, The UN General Assembly demands aid access to the besieged Gaza Strip and protection of civilians, (freemalaysiatoday, 28/19/2023).
Not to go unnoticed, of course, is that Israel is yet failing to reach its objectives of demolishing Hamas’s military machine and capacity to return to political governance in Gaza. These underlying facts have potented the Gaza conflict as a bundled suitcase, with political trash problems, but without a handle, (thehill).
The aircraft carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower and its carrier strike group are headed to the Eastern Mediterranean, joining the Ford Carrier Strike Group,(navytimes).
On another note, in the shadow of a conflict, the U.S. has waged another “secret war” in Lebanon against Sunni terror groups like the Islamic State and Al Qaeda, according to a former four-star commander who oversaw the effort, declassified documents, former special operators with knowledge of the program, and analysts who have investigated U.S. Code Title 10 § 127e — known in military parlance as “127-echo” — which allows Special Operations forces to use foreign military units as proxies, (The Intercept, October 24 2023).
Retired US Colonel, Douglas Macgregor - as reported by the palestinechronicle 26/10/2023 - said
“We are relying on special forces and right now, 2,000 Marines. And perhaps, 2,000 special forces and special operation forces.
That’s not good to make much of a dent, and we have seen quite recently, over the last 24 hours or so. Some of our special forces and Israeli special forces went into Gaza (… ) They were shot to pieces and took heavy losses, as I understand.”
On October 22, the US news website AXIOS wrote that “2,000 US special forces were deployed to the Middle East”, adding that “they’re unlikely to serve in combat roles”.
Two days earlier, on October 20, the White House shared a photo on its X page showing US President Joe Biden shaking hands with covert Delta Force teams operating inside Israel, but the photo was reportedly taken down one hour after publication, (read the relevant MoA threads ).
It has to be noted that the leader of Hizbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, met senior figures of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Lebanon where the three Tehran-backed groups “agreed to continue coordination” in pursuit of a “real victory for the resistance in Gaza and Palestine”, (financial times).
Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad are ready for the next phase of the fight with leaders discussing how to achieve 'victory'
The meeting involved Hezbollah's Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas deputy chief Saleh al-Arouri and Islamic Jihad chief Ziad al-Nakhala, Hezbollah said in a statement. It did not say when the meeting took place.
"An assessment was made of the international positions being taken and what the parties of the Axis of Resistance must do ... to realise a real victory for the resistance in Gaza and Palestinian and to halt the brutal aggression," Hezbollah said.
If Hezbollah unleashes its missile force against Israel's infrastructure and industrial areas the Zionist entity is done. By initiating, employing and deploying a policy of genocide for 75 years, Israel is, quintessentially, writing own death warrant for its nationhood.
Meanwhile, Tehran is applying geopolitical smart power not only relying heavily in alliances, and institutions (and non-state actors) at all levels to expand its influence and capacity, but also concreting the legitimacy of its action in the evolving situational events surrounding Gaza.
Smart power is the the combination of hard power and soft power strategies.
The remarks by Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian following a regional tour that took him to Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Qatar and closed-door meetings with the leaders of the resistance groups, stand out as an audacious display of smart power aiming at pivoting the ground situation towards the diplomatic track at a crucial juncture when dialogue and diplomacy are at a premium, according to former Indian diplomat, Bhadrakumar, (indiapunchline).
Such a display in dexterity to combine hard and soft power into a successful geostrategy is putting Iran in an influential position at a defining moment in the geopolitics of West Asia.
It dawns - and rattles - upon western strategists when for the first time since Gaza crisis began, Chief of Staff of Iranian Armed Forces Gen. Mohammad Baqeri engaged with Russia’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on October 19, 2023, (iranintl).
The matrix in MENA geopolitics is reshuffling.
It could likely preset the demise of a hegemon in MENA; see US faces defeat in geopolitical war in Gaza; and the floundering political end of Netanyahu, (The Atlantic, 22/10/23).
It also seems unlikely that Israel alone can safely determine the future of Gaza by factoring - in a wholly uncertain and unpredictable endgame scenario - into their strategic planning, even though Israeli officials are already talking of controlling Gaza’s coast by applying non-kinetic operations to create buffer tent cities in a post-war Gaza.
According to analysis by Oxfam, only 2 % of food supplies normally delivered to Gaza have been allowed in since Oct. 7. The Palestinian Ministry of Health and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) stated that health facilities had supplies to last until the end of Wednesday, October 25 at the latest, (peoplesdispatch, 24/10/23).
IF you have missed any essay posted during the week, here's the list:
1] Tributes to Francis Khoo - advocate of justice for Palestine
3] Sheikh Naim Qassem Statement
4] How can poverty alleviation take root
5] In Guatemala people take to the street
9] ANGOLA and BRI
10] WOMEN in CHINA
11] Friday Files
12] INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION TAX - issues of misdeeds