Ukraine is running out of able-bodies in the meat grinding caper, not having enough foot-soldiers (besides being provided with outdated and or malfunctioned weapons by allies), to sustain this conflict. The Ukrainian armed forces may soon be demised.
The Jamestown Foundation released a piece in July where it estimated that the population of Ukraine comes to around 20 million; see “Ukraine’s Manpower Requirements Reaching a Critical Threshold” by Hlib Parfonov.
It is often said that the young Ukrainians are gone. They either have fled from Ukraine or are wounded, disabled or died. You can not mobilize what is no longer there.
The increasing fracture of support for Ukraine not only in America's eclipse of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, but is also threatening the structures of the EU and NATO.
It also dawned upon the initiator of this adventure that the Biden administration may have to throw Ukraine under the bus:
United States National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the support provided to Ukraine, currently at war with Russia, is not going to be indefinite.
The Russian government had predicted that this process would happen:
The Kremlin said ……. it believed a decision by U.S. Congress to pass a stopgap funding bill that omitted aid for Ukraine was a temporary setback for Kyiv, but forecast war fatigue in the West would grow and increasingly split opinion.
In Europe, war fatigue and domestic strain is playing out at the polls, with voters in some countries choosing leaders that are increasingly turning away from Kyiv.
At a meeting of the EU’s foreign ministers on further military assistance for Ukraine ended without results (machine translation):
The foreign ministers of the EU countries at today’s summit in Kiev could not agree on the allocation of military assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 5 billion euros for 2024.
This was announced at a press conference following the event by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrel.
Putin had said that a Chinese proposal to end the conflict could be the basis of a peace settlement, but the West and Kyiv were not yet ready, (see Jeffrey Sachs’ article).
The war in Ukraine is a proxy-act for the U.S. in support of its quest for global hegemony.
For Russia, China, and much of the rest of the world, the war is thus about the elimination of that quest.
As President Putin explained in his recent Valdai speech in Sochi:
The Ukraine crisis is not a territorial conflict, and I want to make that clear. Russia is the world’s largest country in terms of land area, and we have no interest in conquering additional territory. We still have much to do to properly develop Siberia, Eastern Siberia, and the Russian Far East. This is not a territorial conflict and not an attempt to establish regional geopolitical balance. The issue is much broader and more fundamental and is about the principles underlying the new international order.
Lasting peace will only be possible when everyone feels safe and secure, understands that their opinions are respected, and that there is a balance in the world where no one can unilaterally force or compel others to live or behave as a hegemon pleases even when it contradicts the sovereignty, genuine interests, traditions, or customs of peoples and countries. In such an arrangement, the very concept of sovereignty is simply denied and, sorry, is thrown in the garbage.
That is why the war is going to be a long one.
Putin though has no doubt who will win:
Russia was, is and will be one of the foundations of this new world system, ready for constructive interaction with everyone who strives for peace and prosperity, but ready for tough opposition against those who profess the principles of dictatorship and violence. We believe that pragmatism and common sense will prevail, and a multipolar world will be established.
It is frequently opinated nowadays that the way out of the war requires U.S. negotiations with Russia. However, the USA administration as well as the current EU leadership are too deeply finalisation capital invested in Ukraine to initiate serious talks. To find an end to the strife will no doubt necessitate regime-change in Washington and Brussels.
The Indonesian has an adage: lepas mulut buaya masuk mulut harimau (out of the crocodile's mouth into the tiger's mouth) prevails for Ukraine and its President Volodymyr Zelensky.
A quick end to the conflict is what all sane people would hope for.
The week that was have the following articles published:
2] The Political Testament of API
3] Outbreak of the largest Israeli-Palestinian conflict
4] MOMENTUM
5] Modi’s assault on press freedom
6] Palestine-Israel conflict: China’s think-tanks’ commentaries
7] Timor-Leste strategic partnership with China
8] Towards a conflict resolution on Ukraine
9] FRIDAY FILES
10] Malaysia MADANI Budget 2024
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